Finished Mafia LVIII: Project Fusion- GAME OVER: Mafia Wins!

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Well scattered’s post.

Oh. Well that sums it up then.
...so, are we going to take the risk? Morda has not responded within 12.5 hours (and thereby has 11.5 hours left), while the game goes on for 32.5 hours. I am starting to think he will get modkilled faster than we could end the day. However, now that we are in MYLO... wouldn't that mean that we need to vote No Lynch within the next 11.5 hours? (Unless Scattered managed to find a substitute, in which case: Kudos to you Scattered.)

This is a good question. @scattered mind would Mord get modkilled before the end of the day if he doesn’t post?

 

[Nick Tornell]

So, what do you think about our current situation? I am still going for Morda if he doesn't show up within 12 hours, but if he somehow manages to convince me he is town, I will probably go for Naga. What about you?

I believe that I'd already stated my position before with this

I'm going to end up doubling back onto mord if things don't pick up and we get alignment indicative posts.

The situation is worse than I previously imagined if the circumstances that scattered is alluding with this occur. That makes everything more important here. A No Lynch would prolong the game giving us more time to think.

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Also it could be that Mord hasn’t had time to log on. IMO let’s give him 12 more hours, and then vote. Actually, maybe a No Lynch.

 

[Zone Q11]

The situation is worse than I previously imagined if the circumstances that scattered is alluding with this occur. That makes everything more important here. A No Lynch would prolong the game giving us more time to think.

Well I am not risking a MYLO.

##VOTE No Lynch

Also it could be that Mord hasn’t had time to log on. IMO let’s give him 12 more hours, and then vote. Actually, maybe a No Lynch.

Choose No Lynch. Morda getting online within 11.25 hours is not guaranteed. We need to play it safe unless we are 100% certain that Morda is scum. (Yes, I know that is impossible, but you three -Nick, Cel and NP- know what I mean.)

 

[Nick Tornell]

##Vote No Lynch

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Choose No Lynch. Morda getting online within 11.25 hours is not guaranteed. We need to play it safe unless we are 100% certain that Morda is scum. (Yes, I know that is impossible, but you three -Nick, Cel and NP- know what I mean.)

True.

##VOTE No Lynch

 

[NinjaPenguin]

I'm p sure quickhammering no lynch is the worst possible option here because it means we're getting into definitely MYLO/LYLO tomorrow instead of probably MYLO and I'd rather quick hammer morda (so he isn't modkilled, which would give an extra town death) or wait until his modkill and if he's town no lynch because then we'd definitely be in MYLO without enough time to consider what to do so no lynch would be good (if he's scum we should just lynch Naga).
I suspect this is from a vote weight canceling effect since that's the best possible way to change how parity works without a killing role. If anybody has an effect like that, they should claim immediately.

 

[Zone Q11]

If no majority is reached by the deadline, the player with most votes will be lynched. In case of a tie, there will be no lynch.

Uh... @scattered mind? Will the Day end once we hit Majority? If not, then wouldn't that mean that Morda's final strike (whether it be modkill or sub) will become reality regardless of what we do?

 

[Zone Q11]

I'm p sure quickhammering no lynch is the worst possible option here because it means we're getting into definitely MYLO/LYLO tomorrow instead of probably MYLO and I'd rather quick hammer morda (so he isn't modkilled, which would give an extra town death) or wait until his modkill and if he's town no lynch because then we'd definitely be in MYLO without enough time to consider what to do so no lynch would be good (if he's scum we should just lynch Naga).
I suspect this is from a vote weight canceling effect since that's the best possible way to change how parity works without a killing role. If anybody has an effect like that, they should claim immediately.

That is, if we can quickhammer in the first place. However, I see your point.

##UNVOTE

 

[Scattered mind]

Negotiating with a potential sub.

Mord will be modkilled tomorrow if not subbed out. If you reach majority before that, the day will end and the removal of morda will be postponed to D3.

 

[Zone Q11]

Negotiating with a potential sub.
Mord will be modkilled tomorrow if not subbed out. If you reach majority before that, the day will end and the removal of morda will be postponed to D3.

In other words, it all depends on whether Morda goes online and whether the (potential) sub responds in time or not.
...surprisingly I am putting more faith on the unknown sub than Morda.

*reads the fine print*
Wait, removed postponed to D3? Does that mean that the substitute would have a whole Night phase (i.e. 2 RL days) to respond, or does that mean that he is doomed?

 

[NinjaPenguin]

Scenarios:
Quickhammer No Lynch:
If we quickhammer no lynch, we've immediately gotten into guaranteed MYLO/LYLO unless the nightkill is blocked. Then we probably need to lynch two scum without any room for error. This is by far the worst option.

Quickhammer Morda:
If we quickhammer morda and its a mislynch, we make it so that two kills (scum isn't going to have a killing role and neither should town since Piplup is dead) or something else that messes with parity needs to go through to lose so we have a chance of getting some room for error.
If we quickhammer morda and he's scum, we aren't going to lose the game and the person to vote after morda flips scum is pretty clear (Naga).

Wait for Morda's Modkill:
If we wait for morda's modkill and he's town, we probably have no mislynches either way so no lynching makes just as much sense plus we'd get more info than quickhammering in that morda would be solved. This takes a small risk of something that messes with parity but I doubt those kind of abilities would be included on scum in a setup this tiny and because it's probably on town, town could holster the ability so risk should be minimal.
We also could just still lynch today which wouldn't be too bad an idea either.
If we wait for morda's modkill and he's scum, we aren't going to lose the game and the person to vote after morda flips scum is pretty clear (Naga).

I see pros and cons in both of the last two options but a no lynch quickhammer is far and away the worst.

 

[Scattered mind]

In other words, it all depends on whether Morda goes online and whether the (potential) sub responds in time or not.
...surprisingly I am putting more faith on the unknown sub than Morda.

*reads the fine print*
Wait, removed postponed to D3? Does that mean that the substitute would have a whole Night phase (i.e. 2 RL days) to respond, or does that mean that he is doomed?

He’ll have more time to respond. Priority is to let the sub in then give another chance for morda to post.

 

[Zone Q11]

He’ll have more time to respond. Priority is to let the sub in then give another chance for morda to post.

I see... Given NP's arguments, waiting would be the best option then.
...well, it's only for 11 hours, so it can't be that bad.

Welp. It's 11PM here anyways, so it's also a good time to sleep. Good night folks!

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

I suspect this is from a vote weight canceling effect since that's the best possible way to change how parity works without a killing role. If anybody has an effect like that, they should claim immediately.

I suspect this comes from two scum abilities that synergize or one scum ability, rather than a vote weight cancelling. (Which is like when votes are canceled if there are too many?)

Anyway, that point you get into about if we No Lynch we’re definitely in MYLO.

##UNVOTE

 

[Nick Tornell]

I swear, future hosts, do not, by any circumstances put in a way for town to get night twoed either intentionally or unintentionally. Double check the makeup of your games and mechanics.

##Unvote

If we lynch morda and he flips town, we can do nothing but hope that, if there is a doctor/roleblocker, they pick the right person to target.

 

[Zone Q11]

I suspect this comes from two scum abilities that synergize or one scum ability, rather than a vote weight cancelling. (Which is like when votes are canceled if there are too many?)

Vote weight cancelling means that whoever is targeted will have their votes nullified. (E.g. Their vote is useless for a Day.)
Though... Does that mean that one of us will have their vote nullified Today?

 

[Zone Q11]

If we lynch morda and he flips town, we can do nothing but hope that, if there is a doctor/roleblocker, they pick the right person to target.

Worst case scenario: Morda is Doc or RB. But uh... what are the odds of that happening anyways?
...
... ...we got a dead Vet and a dead JOAT.
Never mind what I said about odds. Let us pray instead.

 

[NaganadelIsBeast]

Vote weight cancelling means that whoever is targeted will have their votes nullified. (E.g. Their vote is useless for a Day.)
Though... Does that mean that one of us will have their vote nullified Today?

Oh. Thanks for clarifying.

Anyway, I think if the person used the ability if NP guessed right, then probably one of our votes is nullified.

 

[Ephemera]

About reading Zone (and Nick) as town above NP and Cel:
It's partially gut feelings, but also because he's given many posts with sound reasoning, and been much less aggressive than I'm led to believe he usually is.
This change in playstyle, at least from my point of view, would very likely come from town perspective, b/c becoming scum and changing playstyle would be almost too obvious.
Nick has given a lot of info freely at the start of D2. I doubt scum would give info nearly as freely.