Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[NinjaPenguin]

Day 1: Vote Count 2​

Ephemera (4)-Vom, Celever, bbninjas, MegaPod_781
Celever (2)-Amici, Ephemera
MegaPod_781 (1)-Jadethepokemontrainer
Amici (1)-scattered mind
Not Voting: Fiery_Lugia

If the day ended right now, Ephemera would be eliminated. There are 48 hours remaining in the day.

Vote History:

Spoiler

#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever

If I'm missing any votes, please let me know. For the ease of making a votecount, it helps to bold votes if possible, but that is not required.

The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
@Celever
@Jadethepokemontrainer
@MegaPod_781

 

[JadeGemTM]

Do you ever multi quote and then they all disappear right as your about to post them? Yeah Idk what that was about but it sure was fun :U

@Jadethepokemontrainer I locked amici town due to the way she handled my pocketing jab. Def not a lock but I quite liked the way she reacted, very much so.

Alright, I sort of get that? To me it seems like a small and not very valid reason to lock someone as town. Though, this was so early, it's carried on so far at this point. Probably a null and small point atp.

@Jadethepokemontrainer You said in #140 that you think Vom is making valid points; what do you think is valid in particular?

While a lot of her posts are tunneling Ephe, I just mean a few points she has made/questions she has asked that could make me see her as town. Examples in following quotes:

Why? This just comes off as as trying to get attention off yourself, especially with the WIFOM you added right after.

Also, you seem awfully happy to let Ephemera take all the heat from your interactions. Do you have something to say about that?

I could see Ephemera/Amici, though being experienced as they are I don't think they'd be buddying this hard. Then again...maybe that's what they count on. Thoughts?

Those 3 right there are the main "valid points"/questions that she had made at the time of my posting that I was referring to. These are all on the Ephe wagon but she is making decent points here and attempting to drive some conversation. She also brought up some decent discussion on Scattered/trying to get him to speak more. Basically, personally, I see Vom contributing and not much that jumps out as scummy to me except for the long tunnel on Ephe.

Actually, quick suggestion - Vom/Ephe? Just popped into my head and I'd actually have to read back through their interactions before putting any solid bet on this but? Vom huge tunnel on Ephe? Epher right back at Vom? Eh?

Idk just getting it out there anyways.

amici/scattered interactions looking like v/v.

Explain?

if im quoting something, should i remove the @'s to other people?? i dont want to annoy anyone with meaningless @'s

Ooh Lily post incoming? Excited to see it!

(oh there's another member named lily i don't know why i didn't realize that)


on the bright side, that member's been inactive for years, so i didn't just ping someone in a mafia game that they're not in – or rather, i didn't ping someone who'll see it

Smh Ephe :/

bruh it’s a habit ok

If you're going to pop into the thread to comment on this which isn't really game related, it might be useful if you commented on something helpful as well. If you have the time to comment on that I would just assume that you've have time to contribute to. Also, you've been on and posting but didn't reply to this from Ephe:

please explain how AAAAAAAAAA it is, thank you!

I was hoping you would clarify as well on what you were saying there, just so we can know what you are thinking when you say that

I actually agree with this. Whether you are scum or town, I'm pretty sure you have at least one scum vote on you.

Could this be because... you yourself are scum??? *Dun dun duhhhhh*

Also, I was referring to this post - really the only post where he seems to add to the discussion.

Gotcha. More void at this point as I'm seeing Scattered has posted more and from what I've skimmed he's giving off his town meta vibes imo.

I want to look into something on Amici but this post is already long so I'll do that in a new post.

 

[JadeGemTM]

@people who have maf history with each other – any people playing like they normally do for town/scum?

Okay uh I just noticed this and want to reply really quick. I believe I have played with everyone here besides Amici/Lily/Vom. That being said, I'm sure everyone knows my old mafia reputation of joining and then not paying attention to games. So, I'll put out what I remember here as much as I can

-bb has always been hard for me to read, and I hardly recall the last game we played together regardless rip.
-Scattered currently is reminding me a lot of his gameplay last game, where he was town (a cop at that), but thinking about it Idk if I've ever played with him as scum.
-Ephe is pretty off from what I'm used to with him (used to as in like, last game). However he did acknowledge that he would be playing differently this time around (ie chaotic).
-Mega: I can't completely recall the last game I played in with mega but so far he is giving me mega town vibes (as in, his town vibes).
-Celever: This doesn't feel quite right for Cel. I always remember him being more active than this. bb mentioned this is a thing that he does early game though, and bb probably knows better on people's metas than I do so *shrug*

Uhh I set out for that to be more useful but as I wrote I realized I don't remember as much as I thought I did. Hopefully this gives something though.

 

[FrostyLily]

I don't think it matters too much, the people mentioned are going to be reading the thread anyhow.

Unless you mean my tag on the member whose username is Lily, in which case go for it if you want?

oh ok, thanks for answering!

more stuff to define btw:

wagonomics - i'm not 100% sure if i understood the concept correctly, but basically looking at wagons and trying to see where scum could be (on-wagon, counter-wagon if applicable, off-wagon)
wagon/s - the player/s getting voted
v/w - villager/wolf. w/w, v/v, and v/w are ways of describing what interactions look like: wolf/wolf, town/town, town/wolf, etc.

@Fiery_Lugia it can be pretty hard to read people at first – some things I use are "do people believe what they're saying, or are they pushing an agenda?" or "does this action, read, or thought make sense from a town mindset?" Reads can and will be bad, but it really never hurts to share what you're thinking, even the smallest ideas.

again, thanks for the help!

Sorry, forgot to put my question to Lily in that last post lol.

@Lily who do you think are genuine, or solving from a town mindset? who do you think are suspicious?

i think you, jade, and sm seem the most genuine, and bb is the most sus, along with maybe amici

I dont remember you answering my question. Can you gibve the name of a player you feel is probably the less scummy so far?

hmm, hard one but id say maybe jade seems the least scummy

 

[bbninjas]

@Fiery_Lugia Mafia has a bit of a difficulty curve so I get ya. Best advice is to start off with your instincts, and then go from there. Say you had a gun and had to fire it right this very second to eliminate someone in this game, who would you shoot and eliminate?

Just popping in really quickly to say; @Fiery_Lugia I had a question for you, so please answer the question!

 

[Vom]

The quote mentioned was the one where he said he enjoyed the interaction between me/amici. Would quote it but it's not working for now, basically looked like there was something happening, but he didn't feel like he needed to contribute.

In addition, cel's very low postcount gives me scum lurker vibes. Could change if/when cel rejoins the thread, but as of right now I don't mind a wagon on cel.

Let me rephrase: what makes you support the Celever wagon over literally any other wagon in the game? Is Celever the most suspicious player to you?

@people who have maf history with each other – any people playing like they normally do for town/scum?

Celever is unusually quiet, in my experience he's been vocal as both town and scum. bb is helpful as always, but something about his posting this game rubs me the wrong way. scattered pops in and out when he can as he normally does, and seems to be following along and putting thought into things.

if im quoting something, should i remove the @'s to other people?? i dont want to annoy anyone with meaningless @'s

You do not, any @s in quotes will not alert the person again.

I was hoping you would clarify as well on what you were saying there, just so we can know what you are thinking when you say that

I would like to take this opportunity to mention my post has also gone ignored @Amici

Gotcha. More void at this point as I'm seeing Scattered has posted more and from what I've skimmed he's giving off his town meta vibes imo.

Yeah, very different circumstances at that point in time. Letting that go now.

bb is the most sus, along with maybe amici

What about them seems suspicious to you?

 

[bbninjas]

1) hm, makes sense somewhat. Even from an outside perspective I think it's quite likely there's scum on my wagon, but I'll go over people's supposed reasons for getting on my wagon later, when I have more time and I'm more awake.

I buy this. I can see scum wanting in on the Ephe wagon, especially without having to watch out for a hammer. Honestly, I'm surprised you don't, you actually seem to outright dismiss the possibility for no apparent reason. Also, yes I understand you already think I'm the nitpick queen, but "no one is going to buy this"? I can't tell if you want Ephemera to keep digging at it or to back off.

Buying this is definitely bad. Eph’s logic is this: Eph is town, therefore one of the four people voting them must be scum. Obviously we don’t know if Eph is actually town or not, and the case that Eph is scum and scum vote Eph is very WIFOM. Either way, I don't know Eph's alignment, and no one should know Eph's alignment, and so pushing cases using Eph's alignment is very bad.

Statistically, you could pick any random 4 people and the likelihood that at least one of them is scum is already very high (72%). Let’s also remember that elimination hasn’t happened yet, so no one has actually had to commit to the vote; these early game votes are pretty worthless right now. All I’m saying is Eph needs to stop wasting town resources on something that is pure WIFOM and needs to actually dig up real evidence on someone.

@Amici I think I know why you "aaaah'd" Eph's post earlier, but I'd appreciate it if you actually articulate it please.

Really? She made like 3 posts and those two lines, while they are good points, are the only salvageable part I could see.

They are very good, original and insightful points. Why say something in many words if you can say it in few?

I'm assuming Amici is taking a similar approach to scattered (i.e. collecting their thoughts and preparing a push), so I'm happy with their posting right now. However, Amici needs to commit to a wagon or start one of her own soon, otherwise her observations are pointless noise.

Not directed at me, but it kinda came out of nowhere so I'm pitching in. Why would you pitch an inactive lim at this point? Do you really wanna settle for the coin flip when we have better candidates? Lynching Celever is not a win-win (especially in this small set up), if he's town then yeah I guess he could still post but I don't see him suddenly coming back from the dead and being more active than he was already, plus we would lose numbers and potential info we could get from literally any other elimination. It's just such a bad idea at this point in time that I have trouble seeing town!bb pitching it.

I was providing some shoddy reasoning to Eph to see what they would do with it, and I'm very glad that you noticed how bad it is, because Eph didn't seem to notice.

Besides, if it's all "smoke and mirrors", how come your vote's still on Ephemera? Your mouth is not where your money is.

Because I still think Eph is scum. I've literally made one post putting pressure on you, and you say that my money is on you now?

bb is helpful as always, but something about his posting this game rubs me the wrong way.

You say this most games actually xD

 

[Vom]

Buying this is definitely bad. Eph’s logic is this: Eph is town, therefore one of the four people voting them must be scum. Obviously we don’t know if Eph is actually town or not, and the case that Eph is scum and scum vote Eph is very WIFOM. Either way, I don't know Eph's alignment, and no one should know Eph's alignment, and so pushing cases using Eph's alignment is very bad.

My thinking doesn't come from the assumption that Ephe is town, their alignment doesn't really matter as far as having one scum vote on them goes. My point is that Ephe is a pretty free vote for either faction (or at least was until recently), a quality appreciated by scum looking to be perceived as being around without being questioned much since they can mindlessly join the wagon without drawing much attention.

All I’m saying is Eph needs to stop wasting town resources on something that is pure WIFOM and needs to actually dig up real evidence on someone.

Gotcha.

Because I still think Eph is scum. I've literally made one post putting pressure on you, and you say that my money is on you now?

Not really, I was more saying that your money didn't seem to be on Ephe anymore since you seemed to be pretty against going after Ephe.

You say this most games actually xD

:'v some things never change

 

[Vom]

My thinking doesn't come from the assumption that Ephe is town, their alignment doesn't really matter as far as having one scum vote on them goes. My point is that Ephe is a pretty free vote for either faction (or at least was until recently), a quality appreciated by scum looking to be perceived as being around without being questioned much since they can mindlessly join the wagon without drawing much attention.

To put it another way, it comes from the assumption that the Ephe wagon is/was an attractive one for scum, whether Ephe themselves are town or scum.

 

[Amici]

Buying this is definitely bad. Eph’s logic is this: Eph is town, therefore one of the four people voting them must be scum. Obviously we don’t know if Eph is actually town or not, and the case that Eph is scum and scum vote Eph is very WIFOM. Either way, I don't know Eph's alignment, and no one should know Eph's alignment, and so pushing cases using Eph's alignment is very bad.

Statistically, you could pick any random 4 people and the likelihood that at least one of them is scum is already very high (72%). Let’s also remember that elimination hasn’t happened yet, so no one has actually had to commit to the vote; these early game votes are pretty worthless right now. All I’m saying is Eph needs to stop wasting town resources on something that is pure WIFOM and needs to actually dig up real evidence on someone.

@Amici I think I know why you "aaaah'd" Eph's post earlier, but I'd appreciate it if you actually articulate it please.


They are very good, original and insightful points. Why say something in many words if you can say it in few?

I'm assuming Amici is taking a similar approach to scattered (i.e. collecting their thoughts and preparing a push), so I'm happy with their posting right now. However, Amici needs to commit to a wagon or start one of her own soon, otherwise her observations are pointless noise.


I was providing some shoddy reasoning to Eph to see what they would do with it, and I'm very glad that you noticed how bad it is, because Eph didn't seem to notice.


Because I still think Eph is scum. I've literally made one post putting pressure on you, and you say that my money is on you now?


You say this most games actually xD

It's insanely surface level and it makes me want to scream, its forced as hell and seems ripped out of a pressured readlist I would make as W. I could rip into it further but i need energy to get on dat and i dont have it rn

This is correct. I have many thoughts right now, but one thing im very hung up on is that Ephe is essentially isolated in thread. Thats my main hang up with their slot, if they were scum odds are by now their scum partner would have at least passively come to their aid but I see nothing of the sort.

Right now GTH I would say
Mega has 85/15 odds in favor of town
BB has 70/30 odds in favor of town
Vom Scattered are both >rand town
Lily is weird, none of their posts have stuck in my head. Need to comb through them.
Cel's odds are the odds of rolling scum, lurking with no actual AI posts
Ephe is >rand scum due to their posting, though its very odd that nobody is even attempting to come to their aid. Once again, thats my main hang up with that slot. If Ephe is scum Cel is basically the only realistic partner (though this may include Lily once im done ISOing them)

 

[Vom]

It's insanely surface level and it makes me want to scream, its forced as hell and seems ripped out of a pressured readlist I would make as W. I could rip into it further but i need energy to get on dat and i dont have it rn

This is correct. I have many thoughts right now, but one thing im very hung up on is that Ephe is essentially isolated in thread. Thats my main hang up with their slot, if they were scum odds are by now their scum partner would have at least passively come to their aid but I see nothing of the sort.

can we just take a second to appreciate the color coding

 

[bbninjas]

Regarding my point on Vom...

That is straight up not true - I have stuck my nose in plenty of other places (like scattered/amici/jade/now you) and half of those did not pertain to me at all. Most of my posts focus on Ephemera because they are the most responsive and active of the bunch and so the back and forth goes much faster.

I don't have time to find the posts you're referring to - but if you could find even just one or two examples of situations where you're responding to others about things that don't pertain to either you or Eph, then I'd happily admit that I'm wrong. Aside, on the back-and-forth, this is actually not helpful if it isn't digging up anything substantial (and I don't believe it was), because all it does is makes clutter, and it makes the Eph/Vom trail much harder to follow.

While a lot of her posts are tunneling Ephe, I just mean a few points she has made/questions she has asked that could make me see her as town. Examples in following quotes:

Why? This just comes off as as trying to get attention off yourself, especially with the WIFOM you added right after.

Also, you seem awfully happy to let Ephemera take all the heat from your interactions. Do you have something to say about that?

I could see Ephemera/Amici, though being experienced as they are I don't think they'd be buddying this hard. Then again...maybe that's what they count on. Thoughts?

Yeah these are good points, and especially the one directed at Amici.

For the record Vom, these posts are all directly linked to Eph (to which Amici is closely linked), so I wouldn't say they show you "sticking your nose in plenty of other places". Also for the record, while these are good points dug up by your earlier tunneling, I don't think there has substance coming out of your tunneling in the past 24 hours and hence I think it's now detrimental.

Actually, quick suggestion - Vom/Ephe? Just popped into my head and I'd actually have to read back through their interactions before putting any solid bet on this but? Vom huge tunnel on Ephe? Epher right back at Vom? Eh?

Maybe, as they've gotten a bit buddy-buddy in their last few points which is a very sudden change. But I'd be more inclined to see a different link - remind me to bring it up later in the day

 

[Vom]

I don't have time to find the posts you're referring to - but if you could find even just one or two examples of situations where you're responding to others about things that don't pertain to either you or Eph, then I'd happily admit that I'm wrong. Aside, on the back-and-forth, this is actually not helpful if it isn't digging up anything substantial (and I don't believe it was), because all it does is makes clutter, and it makes the Eph/Vom trail much harder to follow.

Exhibit A:

Is he? He asked a few (very valid) questions, but hasn't put out content of his own. Notice that in the one post where he appears to give input into the game, he does so in probabilities - not opinions. What do you make of that?

Yeah, I know scattered's a good player so I'm sure he has some reason to openly admit to withholding information....Ok now that I typed that it seems really scummy. I can see town!scattered waiting for a reaction or something before giving out reads, but I'm having more and more trouble believing that the longer he waits.
Also, I was referring to this post - really the only post where he seems to add to the discussion.

Me talking to Jade about scattered. Full disclosure this point doesn't matter anymore but it was relevant at the time.

Exhibit B:

Actually I think it was the vote. People had already asked her questions, she came to clarify something about a joke, but it was only after you voted her that she addressed the game.

But calling an "obviously bad post bad" hardly clears up the connection, eh? I guess you're not muddying it, but you're certainly not clarifying it either.

Me talking to scattered about Amici. I know you said Amici and Ephe are closely linked, but the first bit has nothing to do with Ephemera and the second bit is to shed light on Amici.

Exhibit C:

I wanna see where his push on Amici takes us.

Me literally saying I'm interested in seeing through a push on someone not named Ephemera.

 

[bbninjas]

I think someone asked me to do a metaread - I'm happy to, but I want to hold off on doing a full one for another 24 hours. scattered seems to be playing his normal (town) game, although his town and scum games are very similar, while Jade is much townier than I'm used to (scumhunting / analysing much more) and it's a very welcome change. @Celever needs to get in here and stop playing his "I'm gonna stay neutral during RVS" strategy, which he's started doing more often as town and as scum iirc.

My thinking doesn't come from the assumption that Ephe is town, their alignment doesn't really matter as far as having one scum vote on them goes. My point is that Ephe is a pretty free vote for either faction (or at least was until recently), a quality appreciated by scum looking to be perceived as being around without being questioned much since they can mindlessly join the wagon without drawing much attention.

I mean, it's always possible, but it's very WIFOM-y and the potential to be a massive red herring when there isn't any indication that scum are trying to bus scum.

Not really, I was more saying that your money didn't seem to be on Ephe anymore since you seemed to be pretty against going after Ephe.

Actually I said that I didn't want to tunnel Eph anymore as I believe it was going to help the town anymore. Specifically, I think there's enough info about Eph dug up now and people can make their own decisions, so I'm now digging elsewhere

This is correct. I have many thoughts right now, but one thing im very hung up on is that Ephe is essentially isolated in thread. Thats my main hang up with their slot, if they were scum odds are by now their scum partner would have at least passively come to their aid but I see nothing of the sort.

This is my main qualm with the Eph wagon actually. On other sites I play there's usually always a counter wagon from scum if the main lynch is scum. Historically on the Beach however, scum often don't actually make a counter wagon (I assume this is because the playerbase became much newer, so many people probably don't know how to). I'm not sure if it's how things are now, but it was how things were maybe 2 years ago; three or four years ago people always made counter wagons, so it's a relatively recent thing.

The fact that Eph has not made a strong case is interesting, but they have thrown out a lot of names as if they're trying to get them to stick, so I find it all a bit WIFOMy.

 

[bbninjas]

Cheers Vom

Yup, so I'm wrong that you're solely tunneling Eph, good to know. For those following along, the posts Vom quoted are spread out across the past 24 hours, so she is consistently turning her attention to non-Eph matters.

 

[Celever]

So I did a multi-quote but it was long and scared me so I deleted it to have another short post :U

Sorry for not being here was out all of yesterday and then slept all of today because #winning

Ephe is definitely the scummiest. OMGUS is uncharacteristic of them and they've done it like, all game, to the point of being paranoid in RVS and targeting people who RVS voted them. They haven't had the same solving as they usually do and things seem less town-minded. I haven't seen them play scum before but maybe this is it.

bb is currently the likeliest partner with Ephe imo. The "let's vote out people who'll still be useful after death as town" is a bad idea in this setup given the numbers and I think bb would've figured that out, being the numbers man he is.

So ##VOTE: Ephemera spiritually because my RVS vote on them's still there :U

 

[Vom]

Do you have anything on Ephemera that isn't a meta read?

 

[Celever]

Do you have anything on Ephemera that isn't a meta read?

Not solving isn't a meta read and that's about it idk. I don't have anything else on anyone else either D:

 

[Vom]

Not solving isn't a meta read and that's about it idk. I don't have anything else on anyone else either D:

Ok but like, anything more specific?

 

[Celever]

Ok but like, anything more specific?

No cos I can't quote what's not there :UU It's just that they're not solving and they're OMGUSSing instead and making it looks like solving which could just be bad play but no one's scummy so :shrug: