Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!
- Thread starter NinjaPenguin
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I'll answer both questions while I'm commuting in a bit - but what's the context of that post again?
This is the last post vom made before voting mega over you. There is more there in that post. I just took that part - You used that post to show that Vom was waiting for a response from mega.
Things I noticed about Vom and in general:
kinda weird to mention a scumbuddy like that even early on.
this is also kinda weird that Mega mentions Vom here about the points on eph made by bbninjas - it's like mega early on marks vom as a trustworthy player.
Another weird thing how Vom was the highest on the list there being townie. But again it just seem to be the list of the 3 most active players at that time aside from Eph who he marked as scummy.
Forgot to respond to that - bit too late but, I don't see that as alignment indicative for bbninjas. I'm more interested about your point of him being more aggressive than usual. Do you still sense that he is like that now? Because for me it's hard to tell.
kinda weird to mention a scumbuddy like that even early on.
this is also kinda weird that Mega mentions Vom here about the points on eph made by bbninjas - it's like mega early on marks vom as a trustworthy player.
Another weird thing how Vom was the highest on the list there being townie. But again it just seem to be the list of the 3 most active players at that time aside from Eph who he marked as scummy.
Forgot to respond to that - bit too late but, I don't see that as alignment indicative for bbninjas. I'm more interested about your point of him being more aggressive than usual. Do you still sense that he is like that now? Because for me it's hard to tell.
And also- that post where Mega votes Eph after making his readlist that early on means to me eph is most likely town. So by PoE- Jabber is kinda the only choice left unless bbninjas explains that vom case and convince me otherwise. There is also a case on bbninjas from Eph that I need to read but I don't quite get how bbninjas is scum. I thought almost everyone agreed that the bbninjas-mega interaction does not have 2 scums in it but only 1. That was something repeatedly said by eph iirc.
OK - just read it.. it seems like an emotional vote? @Ephemera do you really want to vote bbninjas for a valid reason? Because I don't quite understand the case.
OK - just read it.. it seems like an emotional vote? @Ephemera do you really want to vote bbninjas for a valid reason? Because I don't quite understand the case.
@scattered Do you think there are any flaws in my Eph analysis?
The other option is very WIFOMy - Vom bussed Mega intentionally for towncred, expecting that Mega would be lynched Day 3 after my flip. Remember that Eph was already doing a “bbn or Mega is scum”, so it was very likely that Mega would be lynched next. The question is: did Vom agree with Eph on this point? If Vom did before they said they wanted to wait, then this would suggest that Vom wasn’t “waiting” to decide on a bus. Scum Vom had either decided to bus before waiting for Mega (Then why wait?) or Vom is town.
This is definitely the shakiest part of the scenario. It depends on whether the options were actually valid. Mega’s defence was not very good, and so Vom could have gotten a lack of flack for hopping on to the bbn wagon instead of the Mega wagon. ie The bbn wagon was not valid at that point.
The other option is very WIFOMy - Vom bussed Mega intentionally for towncred, expecting that Mega would be lynched Day 3 after my flip. Remember that Eph was already doing a “bbn or Mega is scum”, so it was very likely that Mega would be lynched next. The question is: did Vom agree with Eph on this point? If Vom did before they said they wanted to wait, then this would suggest that Vom wasn’t “waiting” to decide on a bus. Scum Vom had either decided to bus before waiting for Mega (Then why wait?) or Vom is town.
Oh whelp, here’s a post where Vom agreed with Eph. Was this before or after Mega’s response?
before
Vom made the bbn wagon invalid by stating 2 things - that mega is leaning more scummy and by saying that she doesn't see you being overdefensive. Meaning that she could easily make the bbn wagon valid. Because those points were stated long before Mega's response.
@scattered About those weird things you pointed out about Vom and Mega, do you think they indicate Vom as townie or scumbuddy?
Re: Eph, I do think Eph’s case on me is emotional - the issue is that they think they were solving on Day 4 but I think they had not been solving on Day 4 until their very recent posts. More generally, I’ve just put a lot of pressure on Eph this game and so they’re probably sick of that as well.
Re: Eph, I do think Eph’s case on me is emotional - the issue is that they think they were solving on Day 4 but I think they had not been solving on Day 4 until their very recent posts. More generally, I’ve just put a lot of pressure on Eph this game and so they’re probably sick of that as well.
Vom is looking much better than. (Why wait to bus?)
I’m not quite understanding - are you saying Vom made the bbn wagon invalid, but could easily turn it valid again? Cause I’m not following in that case.
the first one indicates townie and the other 2 are points that are strange- they could be scummy if Mega unawarly showed that he trusts Vom without Vom being confo town, But it could be a form of pocketing Vom. To make him closer to her.
You said that there are 2 possible explanations and I commented on the first explanation you gave- that vom thought that the bbninjas case was seen as invalid compared to Mega and that she had no choice but to bus him. I said that this is not probable, since both cases were valid and if anything- the bbn wagon kinda became less valid because of Vom's post about it. Vom was the one who voiced her disagreement with the case on you being overly defensive.
hmm apparently eph already said what I said about Mega and Vom interaction?
@bbninjas - Main flaw of your eph analysis is that it keeps changing. It seems like eph is doing certain scummy things and certain townie things and your read depends on what you focus on more.
scattered's already addressed some of this, but I want to add a couple things: in post #356 (i.e. the post directly before the post you quoted where I say I'd wait for Mega) I actually call him out for a couple things on his posts, and, more importantly, throw shade by literally saying he has an agenda. This, in addition to the other point made in that post, would be what I was waiting for. Besides, it's not like I only waited for Mega before voting him, I also waited for you in another instance - post #190, where Ephemera asks me what I think of you but I wait before voting.
Townier than Jabber? Or townier than people think?
I think it was more about the steam the Cel wagon was gaining - perhaps he didn't want to draw attention by staying on Ephe? Though knowing he was scum I don't see why not just stay on Ephe and distance himself from the Cel flip, which he knew was gonna be town.
Probably just to justify going after you, yeah.
I had something about asking the right question regarding this, but I seem to have forgotten in the process of compiling and writing this post.
I think right now he's just solving, but earlier on he definitely was playing more aggressive.
*high fives back*
I'm back, and have cooled off a little. Still think I may have been playing too much mafia lately (although if something happens that I'm specifically waiting for, I won't say no
)...and I will now proceed to ghost the thread a little due to IRL stuff plus backreading. Oh, and sleep. That's a thing too.
Fortunately or unfortunately, besides the spirit-breaking tunnel on me, bb's very likely town. ##UNVOTE: bbninjas
...just would really appreciate not being accused of not solving while in the middle of my backread
I still think Vom/Jade are locktown. Jade's the firefighter, but also neither of them needed to get on Mega – I'll check on D2 if it makes other kinds of sense for scum!Vom to jump on a Mega bus, but if she did want to bus Mega for towncred, Day 3 would have been a prime time to do so, not D2. This logic also slightly applies to bb but not as much for reasons I've already stated – the pressure on bb D2 could have made a bb/mega scumteam devise a mutual bus situation. Still believe it could have been saved for D3 though.
Re: Jabber (this is directed at bb)
While Jabber's posts have been pretty solving and high-effort, this (as I've said earlier) is unfortunately not a reason to townread him. Scum subbing in at this phase would be solving on their own, and naturally their posts would need to be high-effort to construct a realistic, believable world (that's wrong) in order to push the miselims a hypothetical scum!Jabber would need.
What does strike me a little as town is the interactions between bb/jabber. Pretty friendly, finding each other town pretty quickly upon Jabber's sub in.
Like I've said, if there were two scum left I'd suspect you two of being buddies, but there's only one left, hence this is obviously wrong.
So what does this interaction look like then?
Given the one scum left, it's either two townies who have found each other, or scum trying to pocket or buddy up to town – and in this interaction I can't see scum!Jabber buddying up with bb. In fact, the reverse is honestly much more plausible.
Thus I believe the interaction here is either v/v, or v!Jabber and w!bb.
Hm. Will need to think about this.
Continuing backread now.
Meaning that Jabber doesn't town read you either, or that I also don't town read Jabber?
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