Finished Mafia XLII: War of the Gods ~ GAME OVER ~ Town wins!

[Scattered mind]

He could also be a scum that just want to initiate paranoia to the town scaring us with the existence of an indie. but if an indie does exist, anyone remember the last time an indie has dangerous ability in a small game?

Yeah he could easily be scum by stating a thing like that, but I think it's very similar to how he acted as an indie before.

So yeah, Rainy and Jade top scum/indie -reads.

 

[Scattered mind]

Good point, though I did start talking a little bit about indies here but I dont know if that really counts:

By virtue of "the first rule of indies" (not really) - they always start the talk about indies- that's making you a valid suspect. But Rainy is more suspicious. Nevertheless, I agree with GM Draclord that it is better to try and lynch a scum to potentially end the game before the indie reaches their wincon (in case it's not in the town's favor).

 

[bbninjas]

Heh, you took a while to respond to this post, especially if it changed your opinion on morda as scum (and thus consequently led to you unvoting them)...

Agree plus he's probably the indie. Second possibility is morda if he posted first about it, but the way rainy did it plus how it was similar to his play as indie in Superheroes makes him more possible.

Realistically anyone here could be an indie; I'm cautious that spamming this 'indies bring up indie talk first' tell will result in many mislynches. A good indie tell of the past is that the player doesn't really care who's lynched, and often isn't strong on their reads, since it doesn't matter to them; however I'm not sure if indies really think like that anymore, as they also can scumhunt purely to get towncred.

That could be just an attempt to confuse us, and I don't think it is out of the ordinary to blame a scumbuddy together with a townie to spam WIFOM thoughts. Jade is also extremely scummy for not being active at all and still trying to appear helpful, like the time she popped out to answer my question because I voted her.

Yeah, that's fair enough. I'd honestly be happy with either of @Jadethepokemontrainer or Camo's lynch.

Why? considering you thought he was scummy before that, what made you change your mind about his role? I don't remember him claiming and we only know about the QT you two share.

Hmm, no... I've been reading him leaning town for most of the game (e.g. here), however have also been considering a potential GM Drac/NP/IE team due to IE saying that Prof (aka Drac) should explain the 'slip' first (IE leaves it at that), effectively giving him an opportunity. This is exactly the attitude scum would have towards a scumbuddy if they knew their role and that it would have caused Prof's response, especially in a situation where Prof was getting momentum on him (scum would want to stop this). It's also possible that IE knew that the slip wasn't true simply because Prof wasn't scum, of course, and that IE stuck up for Prof for that towncred. There's also Prof being like 'NP probably just overacted; there's not much to it' which is obviously incriminating considering NP was scum.

I didn't actually notice it, but these are both pretty significant links between both of the known scum... which is more evidence than anyone else!

Also Prof claimed here.

He did explain the logic behind him not voting, and I found him to be very consistent with his answer, so I don't understand this point.

]
It's not so much the consistency, in fact, I'd expect consistency from HW because he is pretty experienced and because it's fairly easy to be consistent over a short period, such as the one he posted over. I'm more concerned about the wishy-washyness - the sitting on the fence on NP - which is troublesome mainly because NP flipped scum. There's also the fact that NP pressured HW but settled on lorde, potentially an indication of NP trying to get that towncred again. HOWEVER, the HW also didn't take off, which could be a simple explaination for why NP moved. (Mental note, check NP's post when he shifted attention from HW.)

 

[bbninjas]

Shoulda proofread that paragraph about Drac, because it's sooo poorly worded:

Hmm, no... I've been reading Drac as leaning town for most of the game (e.g. here), however have also been considering a potential GM Drac/NP/IE team. This is largely because IE tried to give Prof (aka Drac) an opportunity to explain the 'slip' first (plus not really saying much else). This is exactly the attitude scum would have towards a scumbuddy if they knew their buddy's role would have impacted their asnwer, especially when Prof was gaining momentum on him. Scum would want to stop this, especially so if the momentum was for nothing, in fear that people start tunnelling. Of course, it's also possible that IE said what he did simply because Prof wasn't scum, sticking up for him simply for that towncred. Another thing is that Prof was saying 'NP probably just overacted; there's not much to it' regarding the case, which is obviously incriminating considering NP was scum.

 

[GM DracLord]

Out of all the player still alive only PP/ME claimed a full role right?

 

[bbninjas]

Actually... a Prof(Drac)//NP/IE scumteam looks a bit less likely on backlog; as if that was they case, both NP and IE bussed, which could have been them going with the flow without a choice, but idk. It's definitely not a play I'd want to make Day 1 (but nor is having two scumbuddies on the block, if Prof was also scum, so it'd be either NP or Prof at this point).

I can't follow sm's post. There's so much in it that I can't stay with the points he's making and as a result, I don't understand the case.

I do like NP's case on Lord though. Easy to follow and excellent post.

I don't know if bb has a case or not. Do you agree Lord is scummy but not for the reasons NP says? That's how it's coming across.

Apologies for the inactivity. I'm working 50+ hours a week right now so I can only post every so often. I'm also locked to mobile most of the time and so long posts are often going to get ignored simply because they're a PITA to read on my phone.

NP is definitely not scum lol. I still think everyone is over-reacting about the RVS vote.

##Unvote: bbninjas
##Vote: lord o da rings

Just bringing this up for reference, as this is the potential link between NP and Prof. There's also the weird 'NP's case was easier to follow', and also the confidence in stating who is scum, which scattered mentioned when that post was made.

The Prof. P slip is certainly strange, and it could incriminate both of you (you may really be the one with the fake role line, as scum don't need the safe claim clause). I believe it may be legit, since generally host inconsistencies are not that large and the hosts seemed to deny the concept of you being 1-way masons from your host quote, but I have one questi
on. @bbninjas is Prof. P's role said to be Palutena?

Interesting that scum NP decide to throw the 'either of you could be scum'. It could be NP throwing a bit of shade on me in case he can get me lynched instead of Prof (if Prof was a scumbuddy)... or he was just showing shade. I don't think this can be looked into too much.

Cel, it's not a role fish. I have a legit reason for asking this that I'll explain if he says yes/no or in a couple of hours if he's offline. There's very little risk in saying it, which is why it's fine in my book. I believe Prof. is scum a lot more depending in one of the answers.

Context: NP asked me whether or not Prof was Palutena. (See above post.) This is certainly a very... interesting question for NP to ask if the two were scumbuddies, because NP should've known that Prof's role (or safeclaim) was Dark Pit in that case. This makes me less confident in the link.

It sounds weird, but here you go. If Prof. was Palutena, I'd expect him to take more time to post/play the game, seeing as he got his dream role. If Palutena was his safeclaim (which I suspected, seeing as Palutena and Pit make sense in a QT together), he wouldn't have cared and would have still been inactive. Therefore, if he claimed Palutena, I was pretty sure he would be scum.

This was NP's explanation. I'm really not sure what NP was trying to do here, regardless of the alignment of Prof. If scum, this seems a bit pointless because NP would have ultimately known that Prof's role was not Palutena. If Prof is town, this could be NP trying to justify the slip a bit more, which seems a bit more likely tbh.

The PP "slip" is very interesting. With this part:

what made you say that, bb?

Either way it seems like the main possibilities are:
-bb is lying to get PP lynched, which is probably not likely unless the main lynch candidates are bb's scumbuddies and he's trying to protect them.
-PP is lying either because he's scum or because he hasn't paid attention.
-Wording error in the roles. bb's justifications against this make sense though.

##UNVOTE

Before placing my vote I'd like to see what PP says about the slip.

IE also goes along with that 'either could be scum' thing that NP did, which is interesting to note, however I'm not too sure what to think of it. There's an interesting use of 'main possibilities' here - did IE know of other possibilities (e.g. to imply that the list isn't exclusive, as to not cut Prof off from some other possibility)? However, this could also be that wishy-washyness/opportunistic behaviour characteristic of scum. So idk. There's too much WIFOM with this post tbh. >.>

##VOTE: PP

As SM said.

As everyone has said, that sub out is really scummy.
##UNVOTE: lord o da rings
##VOTE: Professor Palutena
Nobody else should vote Prof. P. We don't want an early hammer, as he could give us info on bb if he does flip town.

Both end up voting Prof P once it was announced that Prof asked to sub out. Is it a bus? Or is it scum feeling comfortable with a fairly risk-free lynch? It's a bit WIFOMy, but bussing a team member who could've easily subbed out is a weird play, unless they both felt they had no other choice.

This whole analysis is not exclusive, however it does make me doubt my leaning town read on Drac less, as generally there is a few odd interactions for scum Prof and scum NP//scum IE to have had. That said, it definitely does not exclude Drac from that possibility; however I do think that HW/Jesi/Camo or Jade might be more likely atm.

 

[Scattered mind]

Context: NP asked me whether or not Prof was Palutena. (See above post.) This is certainly a very... interesting question for NP to ask if the two were scumbuddies, because NP should've known that Prof's role (or safeclaim) was Dark Pit in that case. This makes me less confident in the link.

Definitely too weird to be true. That makes me think the same about Drac probably not being scum.

 

[Scattered mind]

Out of all the player still alive only PP/ME claimed a full role right?

Right. iirc.

 

[bbninjas]

Let's also take a look at NP's readlists! I've coloured green the flipped or virtually confo (e.g. scattered) townies and red the scum.

My reads are similar to those earlier today, except that which I explained. Tomorrow, look at them. They can give you a good springboard to build upon

This was posted late Day 1. The interesting thing is that NP wanted people to inspect his read list! This suggests that he didn't put his scumbuddies a very townie on it. In fact, IE was 'neutral, leaning scum'. The question is whether or not NP would've put his other scumbuddy in a 'leaning scum' bracket in his reads also. I think he might, because at this point NP seemed quite likely to be getting lynched, and thus putting his buddies low could have helped them get a bit of towncred.

Also, a reads list:
bb- Leaning town. He's never done anything very scummy, is not tunneling a side, and took the initative with the Prof. P slip. This causes me to believe him.
Cel- Leaning scum. His extreme tunneling is ridiculous, and there are small connections to Lorde.
IE- Neutral, leaning scum. He's said basically nothing, but he gave a useless comparison between me and Camo in that time. Lorde also gave a small defense for him.
Lorde - Large scum. BB and I have both made cases on her. Check them out.
Morda- Leaning town. He's trying to play better, and it's apparent and nice to see.
Mirdo- Neutral, leaning town. He's not really said much that I remember. By virtue of the fact that there are more townies than scum, he's leaning town.
Jesi- Medium scum. Lorde tried to defend HW, and HW was a bit strange when he was playing. We haven't heard from her at all, which I'd want before I made a decision on her.
Prof. P- Leaning scum. He potentially slipped. That's all I have.
Scattered - Large town. He's acting like a townie, thinking out all of his posts in a logical manner and always listening to other points of view.
Rainy- Leaning town. He's been tunneling me, but he's clearly playing better, and trying to think things out.
Jade- Neutral. He seems to be playing like a townie, but Lorde's strange interaction with him makes me unsure.

Okay, so first thing to note is that Cel, IE, lorde, Jesi and Prof were all of NP's 'scum' reads, and Jade was plain 'neutral'. Technically these people would look 'townier' on NP's flip. Interestingly, both Cel and lorde would've looked townie if NP flipped anyway (one pushing for NP's lynch, the other who NP pushed himself), so putting them as scum was very low risk. IE was also in this 'scum' list, which supports the theory that NP listed his actual scumbuddies as 'scum' also. That leaves Jesi//Camo and Prof//Drac (and Jade)... who unfortunately are my three suspects atm, so this list doesn't really help me eliminate anyone.

Let's look into the reasoning, then. The read on Prof is very reachy - honestly, Prof's explanation of the slip made complete sense. Latching onto this slip thing is weird, although I'm not sure what to think of it (it could be reaching to throw either town or scum in here). There's not much on Jade; it seems like a fairly average read with a bit of wishywashy thrown in. Finally there's Jesi. The 'lorde tries to defend HW' was actually a very reachy reason, because the town (and technically NP) didn't know lorde's alignment yet [granted, NP said this for Jade also, so idk]. I wonder if this was actually mentioned because on NP's flip, lorde would like townier, thus making Jesi look townier (which is what NP would have wanted if Jesi was scum). However, the tipping factor for me is that NP literally said 'get her to post more first before lynching'. Not only is this written as if to cause a bit of doubt in his read in case people actually choose to go with it Day 2, and to provide an 'out' for NP; no other read has this level of 'look into this' attached to it. NP likely did this because Jesi/Camo was his scumbuddy!

Reads list:
Mirdo- Acting like he has in the past. Light town.
Cel- At this point, most probably a doctor. Fair town.
Bb- Has potentially slipped, and I didn't like his last post. Light scum.
IE- Just doesn't post. Neutral, leaning scum by virtue of player count.
Scattered- Probably saved from kill. Town.
Jade- Not giving me enough to tell much. Sometimes seems misguided, sometimes scummy. Neutral, leaning town.
Rainy- Tunneling me a ton, and doing very little else. Light scum.
Jesi- Who knows? Basically. I posts, which seems to line up more with anti-town Jesi. Light scum.
Morda- Just seeming like a townie. Fair town.
Drac- I just can't ever get a read on him. Neutral.
So you know, in my mind, fair is stronger than light.

Interesting to note that IE increased to neutral; Jade increased to 'leaning town', Jesi increased to 'light scum' and Drac increased to 'neutral'. So... everyone pretty much moved up a step. I'm not finding much of a link here either, except that Jade has more legit reasons for them being scummy than before. Actually, it is interesting that NP says Jade is scummy, yet lists them as 'leaning town' - this could be NP being more selective about his scumbududy. NP still keeps the Jesi line open, but she was also being somewhat inactive, which I feel like NP would do to a scumbuddy, if IE is to be precedent. Drac's is a fairly average (cop out?) read here.

To be honest, I'm not sure how much these reads do, aside from making me more confident that the scum is one of Drac//Jesi(Camo)//Jade. Jesi(Camo) and Jade moreso - I think that the Day1 read NP gave for Jesi was weird, but the Day 2 read on Jade was also weird. I think it's going to come down to how NP pressured Jesi for me, which I am yet to look at.

 

[bbninjas]

Also, it's still just the same few of us posting. @Camoclone @Jadethepokemontrainer @mirdo Where are you all?

Also also, you people that have posted but haven't really said much could really help by commenting on this thoughts/ideas/analysis/etc that scattered and I are throwing around, because it really feels like a two-way conversation right now. v---v'

 

[Camoclone]

Yeah I can't really contribute anything right now. I'm going to be taking a long car ride this afternoon and will catch up then.

 

[Scattered mind]

Heh, you took a while to respond to this post, especially if it changed your opinion on morda as scum (and thus consequently led to you unvoting them)...

Is that a question?

 

[mirdo]

Sorry was a bit busy over the Weekend so far.
At least we still have like 2 days to go.

Problem i see is that the scum is not gonna be active until we have a lead or actually start scum hunting.
I've gotta say that @bbninjas has some great analysis in his #569 Post there. We should probably lynch one of the Camo, Jade oder Drac as he suggested. With Jade probably beeing the best target due to the inconsistency in reads as he pointed out.
Might need to consider Rainy aswell after this day.

##Vote: Jade
Please give some Inside on that guys. Im gonna come back later and will post some more to this after we got some insight

 

[Scattered mind]

Jade : (looking through her posts and commenting as I read them)

Morning!

##VOTE: Haunted Water

RVS 0 points

Wouldn't really be surprised to see a Cel and NP scumteam. Really my only scumread's based off of what other people have said.

Echos mirdo's post while responding to it. Saying he's suspicious of the two main active people at that moment, which is so common for new players to do.. and annoying. But doesn't say anything regarding her alignment. Blaming NP so early has next to no merit. 0 points

Looking back now. Give me a little

Being called out for not having her own thoughts by bb, and try to stall. +1 scum (1)

Yeah...fell asleep while typing

After being called out again for not really looking back, she gives this.. which is an obvious lie.. no one really do that.. next.: +1 scum (2)

If you think he's scum, why wouldn't we vote for him?

Asking me because I said I bet NP's scum. Again, not trying to bring her own thoughts, just try participating and trying to appear a townie fellow "why wouldn't we vote him"- the only missing words here is "together pal". So I read this as an attempt to participate, without actually contributing, which is either scummy or new player like acting. +1 scum (3)

Here I go:
If I understand the whole case, it started by NP saying bb's vote was a good vote? Which I don't exactly see how that's scummy...could someone please explain? Also playing more aggressive than usual. I saw him not answering some questions and saying he needed to leave, then he'd still be on and but not answering the questions (I believe he answered all the questions eventually, though will look back again to double check).

She was asked to put her own thoughts and this is suppose to be it: kinda defending NP.. while possibly dumbtelling about it to make it appear less serious to others. Then echos some accusation about him not answering.. and also defends it later by saying he might have actually answered. +1 scum (4)

I don't really know if I see Cel a scummy or not, I was mainly going with the fact that he was tunneling into NP right away. Don't have anything else on him atm so I'm just going to drop that case and keep an eye on him.

Realizing she's only defending her scumbuddy and not the other one she blamed earlier, she, out of nowhere, is saying now that she doesn't think Celever is scummy either.. even though no one asked for opinions on Celever. She responded to this , which only asks for thoughts on NP: "I want everyone to comment on NP's case, no exceptions, and from the time of this post. IDC if you've done it already. A genuine (he is town / not town / I'm ambivalent because of XYZ). Will tag when I get to a computer (and reply to bb's post because he gets sad when I don't)." (quote from bb).

+1 scum (5)

I find this confusing. So bb's a good lynch option either way?

also I don't see a reason to keep my vote where it is, so ##Unvote: Haunted Water

Echoing this post:

This last paragraph is just setting up a lynch. BB is a good no matter how I flip? At least make up your mind on why you think he's defending me (trying to stop my lynch, or trying to get towncred from it).

+She unvotes an RVS vote.. and that's it. Anything to look as if she's engaging when she's clearly not. +1 scum (6)

Yes I do

Answering morda's question- saying she has a double vote weight. -MEGA IMPORTANT- when/if we come to a mass claim since I can't imagine two people with more than 1 vote weight on the same alignment in this small game. 0 points.

I thought it was weird how he jumped right onto you and started tunneling. I now realize how stupid that is and am not really into that idea anymore.

Apologizing for thinking NP and Cel were scumbuddies before. I wonder why she had the need to defend herself like that in front of NP if they were scumbuddies.. +1 town (1)

What strange interaction?

being pulled away from the computer. be back later

She was blamed by NP for having strange interaction with Lord because Lord answered for her. Null read on that whole thing because there is a lot of WIFOM in NP's post where he also attempted to tie IE and Lord together. 0 points

I don't expect to be on until after the end of the day so ##Vote: NinjaPenguin

@PikaMasterJesi what are your thoughts on the day?

Easy bus on a scumbuddy, without any reason, not leaving too much trace and gaining town points. However, this can be also looked as townie by the sheer casual way she just throws her vote because she's too busy to play the game. So either scum or an apathetic townie. 0 points.

She picks pretty much the only player who's less active than her to distract people from her own inactivity. Or she just saw her online or something. Null. 0 points.

who want's to catch me up on what's going on?

Good. Without being asked she tries to engage. Let's see if this time she'll manage to do that. I told her to sum up her thoughts on main players from what she read on D1, so later I'll sum up D2 for her. That's her answer:

Day 1 reads:

NP ~ more aggressive. Does no one else think it's suspicious that he turned the case onto Lord to avoid getting lynched himself? It seemed that everyone kinda dropped his case after that..(?) I'm still seeing him as scum

Mirdo ~ Was there a case on him day one? I was reading him as town.

Celever ~ I was reading him as scum at first, tunneling into NP, but that could go either as town scumhunting or scum.

bb ~ I don't think I really understood bb's case. He seemed to be contributing as town.

if this isn't what you wanted and I misunderstood what you asked, let me know.

HUGE TOWNIE point on bringing back the idea to lynch NP. That was totally unnecessary act for a scumbuddy. +1 town (2).

And that's it. We haven't seen her since. So to recap:

Scum points:
1- Attempting to stall in order to not share her thoughts.
2- Giving lame excuses for stalling without eventually sharing her thoughts.
3- Trying to appear as participating while not contributing anything.
4- At some point semi-defending NP
5- Then also defending Celever without being asked because she talked about them being scumbuddies together.
6- That unvoting she did without voting or sharing any thought on who's scummy.

Town points:
1- That moment where she apologizes in front of NP for suggesting he and Celever are scumbuddies and saying how that was a stupid idea. I don't know if it really is a townie point.. just a weird interaction between two players in case they are both scumbuddies.
2- The fact that she brought up the NP case out of nowhere and without any need. That point alone puts a lot of doubt in my vote on her.

What do you think?

##UNVOTE

 

[Scattered mind]

Oh just take it into your consideration that while that townie point is good- This is still something I asked from her to do- to tell what are her thoughts on NP. Still, she could easily state some vague statement like she did with the rest, while instead it felt very genuine- her wonder about why we weren't looking further into NP.

 

[bbninjas]

Man, that out-of-the-blue read on NP being scum (and the first to really do so) feels very townie there. In fact, I was thinking Jade to be very likely up until that point. I think the 'stalling'/'disappearing' was probably genuine; I actually didn't feel the 'falling asleep' was fake - people do it, believe it or not. The possible dumbtelling is probably the biggest scumtell for me, however I can see both alignments doing it - the case on NP was hard to follow, however scum would have had more incentive to get clarification.

 

[bbninjas]

@mirdo, We might have two days remaining, but we really need to be using those two days to iron out the cases, else we might have last-minute shenanigans going on like we have had in past Days. Looking forward to your next post.

 

[mirdo]

Yeah Your right. Dont want that to happen.
Man Thanks sm for that anaylsis again. That read on NP makes it probably unlikely she is scum.
Rest is fair point. But it does move her down tue priority list for me.


For me right now: (In that order. Townie up to Scummy down)

Me
Sm and Bb
Drac and Jade
Mord, Rainy and camo.

Rainy is Pretty much safe ish because of that beef with NP. Camo at least said he was going to Post Soon. I might do a case on mord After i come from school. He seems to be tue best Target rn.

 

[bbninjas]

Yeah Your right. Dont want that to happen.
Man Thanks sm for that anaylsis again. That read on NP makes it probably unlikely she is scum.
Rest is fair point. But it does move her down tue priority list for me.


For me right now: (In that order. Townie up to Scummy down)

Me
Sm and Bb
Drac and Jade
Mord, Rainy and camo.

Rainy is Pretty much safe ish because of that beef with NP. Camo at least said he was going to Post Soon. I might do a case on mord After i come from school. He seems to be tue best Target rn.

I can do a case to show that both morda and rainy are highly unlikely scum. See this post in particular. I did find some other weird interactions if morda was scum as well on backlog, but haven't brought them up because they're not really relevant. Why do you think that Drac and Jade are townier than rainy and morda?

 

[Nyora]

Idk, but do roleblocks generally block the NK?