"Top of the Format" Now starting to tier the decks. Great for finding what to Play for Cities and wh

RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

It's actually 6.25% chance of zero heads. Behold:

I find that it easier to calculate multiple coin flips as individual flips. So, there is a 50% chance flip 1 will be a heads, 50% chance of flip 2 being heads, and so forth. W can convert these percents to fractions, because it is easier. We now multiply. So, we have:

50/100 * 50/100 * 50/100 * 50/100 =

We can make this easier and reduce the fractions.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 =

That leaves with us with 1/16 chance of all tails, and a 1/16 chance of getting all heads. The important thing to remember is that for each calculation you make for calculating the chance of x ammount of heads and y ammount of tails, there is an equal chance of y ammount of heads and x ammount of tails. That means there is a 6.25% (1/16) chance of getting all tails, and 6.25% chance of getting all heads.

The mistake that people make is that they add up the percents instead of multiplying. So if you have 50% chance of one heads, and 25% chance two heads, instead of adding 50% and 25%, you should lower 25% to 1/4 (25/100). 1/4 of the time you will flip H H, 1/4 of the time you will hit TT. 1/4 of the time you will flip TH, and 1/4 of the time you will flip HT. Assuming your using a card that does not care about the order of the heads (unlike Meganium MT), you have 25% chance of two Heads or two Tails, and then a 50 percent chance of a combination of Heads and Tails. Combination is the key word here.

To take it one more step, you have a 1/8 chance of flipping HHH, and a 1/8 chance of flipping TTT, both being the same result (all flips being the same thing) giving us 2/8 of the time you will flip all three coins the same result. You have a 1/8 chance of flipping THH, a 1/8 of flipping HTH, a 1/8 chance of flipping HHT, a 1/8 chance of flipping HTT, a 1/8 chance of flipping THT, and a 1/8 chance of flipping TTH. All these are the same result (all flips having one heads or one tails. On the flip side, it is the same result in the fact that they all have two of the same result.) meaning that 6/8 of the time you will flip a combination of one head or tails and the other two coins the opposite of the first. I took a little shortcut, because 3/8 of the time you will have a combination of 1 Heads and 2 Tails, and 3/8 of the time you will flip a combination of 1 Tails and 2 Heads. Both are the same, and add up to 6/8. So, 2/8 [chance of flipping 3 of the same result] + (3/8 [chances of flipping a combination of 1 Heads and 2 Tails] + 3/8 [chances of flipping a combination of 1 Tails and 2 heads]) = 8/8 (100%).

I could go into the 1/16, but I won't. We all get the picture.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Papi: Thank you for the Dusknoir list. It seems extremely similar to my list except for the Amphy. This afternoon I will be testing out a new Raichu deck of mine in a small tourney with some friends. The only issue that I have with the deck is the huge amount of techs that a Raichu deck needs
1 Active Raichu X
1 Benched Raichu
1 Bronzong
1 Claydol
2 Electrivire
A Dusknoir deck shouldn't have a problem with this deck and I also sense an issue with getting the techs out early enough to actually get the combo rolling in time before a quicker deck kills off a couple of cards. Not to mention that all of the techs will ruin your starts IMO.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Papi- you make some good points about Raichu, and I may try a Proxy Deck with it. I don't think Raichu has to be techy. I don't see the point of Electivire (SW, I assume?), unless you use Energy Link. Still, that means a link on each Vire, and a Link on two Chu. Vire Lv.X could prove to be needed though in a game against Dusknoir. Instead of Vire, I would opt to use Uxie Lv.X because it can OHKO Machamp Lv.X, should it be needed. It also can set up a KO for Raichu to take easily. Uxie Lv.X isn't only a tech against Machamp, but a tech that can acclerate the deck in general. And really, you need the extra help agaisnt Machamp more than extra help against Dusknoir.

I think Gardevoir, Claydol, and Uxie are the techs you need. There isn't really anything else that you need to use. Vire could work if you have room for it, but I just don't like it. Gardevoir > Bronzong IMO because you can Roseanne every turn to get the energy you need, and if you already have the energy you need, you can use something else to help you. And running Candy might not be bad. Turn 1 30 can be a little tough for some people to deal with.

I have never had any interest in Raichu what so ever, so I haven't even thought of lists. I know But I imagine mine would look like this:

Pokemon: 20
4-2/1-1 Raichu (SF, SF/MT, SF)
2-2 Claydol
2-1-2 Gardevoir
1-1 Uxie Lv.X
1 Azelf

Trainers: 25
4 Roseanne's Research
4 Plus Power
3 Bebe's Search
3 Felecity's Drawing
3 Rare Candy
3 Warp Point
2 Night Maintenance
1 Cynthia's Feeling
1 Conductive Quary
1 Luxury Ball

Energy: 15
13 Electric Energy
2 Call Energy

This is my first time thinking about Raichu. I'm not sure if the MT Chu used at all, but it can be a great acclerator if you can get a T1 Raichu MT. Leveling it up might not be a bad idea either, since you get to snipe a tech, and you can get a quick KO. Azelf is for just in case situations. Chu Lv.X or Gardevoir prized could prove to be fatal. 6 techs that I can possibly start with and 4 Pikas I can possibly start with might not be the best of odds, but tech starts won't hurt me too much. Baltoy start could help me, but this deck doesn't really burn cards. Ralts start isn't good, but if I get Kirlia T2 than I could set up something else. Uxie start is the second worst start, and it is second (and not first) because it can attack. The only pro to starting with a lone Uxie is that you may be able to pull of a T2 Uxie Lv.X and get going from there. That isn't what you want to get though. Azelf start is the worst, I think we all know that.

Is this similar to your lists, or is it way off and am I missing the entire picture here?
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

abaxter94 said:
It's actually 6.25% chance of zero heads. Behold:

I find that it easier to calculate multiple coin flips as individual flips. So, there is a 50% chance flip 1 will be a heads, 50% chance of flip 2 being heads, and so forth. W can convert these percents to fractions, because it is easier. We now multiply. So, we have:

50/100 * 50/100 * 50/100 * 50/100 =

We can make this easier and reduce the fractions.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 =

That leaves with us with 1/16 chance of all tails, and a 1/16 chance of getting all heads. The important thing to remember is that for each calculation you make for calculating the chance of x ammount of heads and y ammount of tails, there is an equal chance of y ammount of heads and x ammount of tails. That means there is a 6.25% (1/16) chance of getting all tails, and 6.25% chance of getting all heads.

The mistake that people make is that they add up the percents instead of multiplying. So if you have 50% chance of one heads, and 25% chance two heads, instead of adding 50% and 25%, you should lower 25% to 1/4 (25/100). 1/4 of the time you will flip H H, 1/4 of the time you will hit TT. 1/4 of the time you will flip TH, and 1/4 of the time you will flip HT. Assuming your using a card that does not care about the order of the heads (unlike Meganium MT), you have 25% chance of two Heads or two Tails, and then a 50 percent chance of a combination of Heads and Tails. Combination is the key word here.

To take it one more step, you have a 1/8 chance of flipping HHH, and a 1/8 chance of flipping TTT, both being the same result (all flips being the same thing) giving us 2/8 of the time you will flip all three coins the same result. You have a 1/8 chance of flipping THH, a 1/8 of flipping HTH, a 1/8 chance of flipping HHT, a 1/8 chance of flipping HTT, a 1/8 chance of flipping THT, and a 1/8 chance of flipping TTH. All these are the same result (all flips having one heads or one tails. On the flip side, it is the same result in the fact that they all have two of the same result.) meaning that 6/8 of the time you will flip a combination of one head or tails and the other two coins the opposite of the first. I took a little shortcut, because 3/8 of the time you will have a combination of 1 Heads and 2 Tails, and 3/8 of the time you will flip a combination of 1 Tails and 2 Heads. Both are the same, and add up to 6/8. So, 2/8 [chance of flipping 3 of the same result] + (3/8 [chances of flipping a combination of 1 Heads and 2 Tails] + 3/8 [chances of flipping a combination of 1 Tails and 2 heads]) = 8/8 (100%).

I could go into the 1/16, but I won't. We all get the picture.
Click to expand...
I was just too lazy to do it out. I could've done it in 30 seconds if I wanted to. Jeeze though, take it to that apocalypse thead if you want to talk about math. lol

DOX: You'll very rarely need 2 vire (if you run it) and bronzong is a waste of space. Pikachu does his job twice as good. :x

abaxter94: Yeah is probably the SW one. However, you don't need energy link, because chu discards 3 energy cards in play, not attached to raichu. Eh on the t1 30 possiblity, becuase you can't even use it next turn.

On your list, 2 pichu from SF is a must, not just for its attack (which is actually decent, though you give up a prize) but because it makes pikachu MT amazing for the deck (I'm doing 3-1 mt/MD atm, just because I can't find a 4th mt). Plus power looks good on paper, but its very situational and the deck needs more draw power then most other decks. I would drop them and a felicities for 4 pokedrawer+ and another CQ. 4 call energy would be good in here, but I don't see much room in here with the gardy line. However, 1 premier ball is a near-must (nothing feels as good as doing 80 to 4 different pokes over the course of 2 turns).

Well the gardy tech is definately not in my list (though it is a good tech idea). My current list follows the spread idea with chu (OHKOin multiple threats is amazing).
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Well, it seems as if there are two styles of play here; spread lists and overkill lists. It seems like a lot of people try to play towards both styles in the same deck. I want to focus on one specific list, that being spread. Blasting for 100 is nice, but it misses the OHKO so many times. That is why after you do that, you can follow up with blasts for 50, grabbing the KO. I just don't like having to use two spaces on my bench, one energy discard, and three energy in play just to do 100 damage (two spaces on bench = 2 Electivire, one energy discard because E-vire gets two energy from discard pile, meaning a third one needs to be discarded, and three energies to use the attack). I prefer to charge up with Raichu MT, hit for 100 when needed, and stock my hand with energy to pull off constant snipes.

I can see Pikachu MT being of use, but with only 2 Pichu, I don't want to start with it, since it can't attack T1. I'll have to test around and see what works best. Still, the 2 Pichu would mean half the time starting with a good start.
I guess I will have to do some fiddeling with the list. How does this new one look?

Pokemon: 22
2-4-2/1-1 Raichu (SF, MT, SF/MT, SF)
2-2 Claydol
2-1-2 Gardevoir
1-1 Uxie Lv.X
1 Azelf

Trainers: 23
4 PokeDrawer +
3 Roseanne's Research
3 Bebe's Search
3 Felecity's Drawing
3 Rare Candy
2 Warp Point
2 Night Maintenance
1 Conductive Quary
1 Luxury Ball

Energy: 16
12 Electric Energy
4 Call Energy

So, I droped 4 PlusPower, 1 Warp Point, 1 Roseanne's Research, 1 Cynthia's Feelings, and 1 Electric Energy for 4 PokeDrawer +, 2 Call Energy, and 2 Pichu. I also swaped SF Pikas for MT Pikas.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

I updated my placements of decks. I have added a couple of the decks to the Rouge Section and I now have a section for decks that are on the line. Help me to put those decks in the correct section.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

I think you should switch Kingdra and Empoleon variants around. Kingdra's losing it's hype and people are forgetting about it, but Empoleon will always be big imo, it has so many combos and different ways to play it. Also, I reckon Mamoswarm will only be rogue.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

With the increase in Heatran variants Kingdra will still have popularity. Most likely not top tier but still going to be played. I will move Empo though.

As for Mamoswarm some people are still considering it. Nobody has thouroughly tested the deck other than doing some math.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

My T5:

not in any particular order

1. Scizor/Cherrim (with GC, +shaymin)
2. magnezone variants
3. Gengar/ dusknoir
4. special condition decks
5. Torterra variants
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Special condition decks?!?!

There's no synergy in that! :p
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

That's funny, Gliscor and Bellawesome seem to do it well.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Ariadosguy said:
Special condition decks?!?!

There's no synergy in that! :p
Click to expand...

i don't know if that was sarcasm, but i think they have a decent style.

IMHO this game is about fun, isn't it?
thats the reason those decks exist, i played a garchomp deck with 22 pokemon and 1 quickball, and every time i play quickball, i get exactly what i need.( i know that had nothing to do with it, but i like to say)
This game is about fun, if it wasn't would nintendo print a bad card???
no the wouldn't but now they do, so this game is for fun.

example: victreebell LA, is it good?no, could it be in a fun deck? yes.

if you think this game is made for winning, shame yourself.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Um, we are trying to find the top of the format, you know.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Words from my mouth.

Special Condition decks do work but only in a couple of variants. Gliscor and Bellawsome seem to do that the most yet there are a couple more.

Also I have updated some of the cards bringing a few down to the rouge postition.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Raichu needs to be higher, Dusknoir needs to be lower, Torterrible should be debateably moved into the On-The-Line Decks category, and Magnezone should move down some notches also.

And yes, I am willing to debate these claims.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Bogus list is bogus. If you promise not to just irrationally blow me off, I'll say why.

P.S. IT'S SPELLED 'ROGUE'.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

Dimentio said:
Raichu needs to be higher, Dusknoir needs to be lower, Torterrible should be debateably moved into the On-The-Line Decks category, and Magnezone should move down some notches also.

And yes, I am willing to debate these claims.
Click to expand...

I can't tell by your post but do you think that the decks on the first post are in any specific order?

Raichu is already being debated for top tier so it can't go too much higher. Dusknoir should end up being second tier so you don't have to worry about that. Magnezone is where it should be and I will stick to that 'till the end. Torterrible also has been doing quite well and is only bolstered by the interesting techs added by SF. I enjoy debates so bring it.

As for DD I don't really follow your post... I will humor you and ask you what you are talking about. Also I will go change rogue to it's correct spelling. My Bad.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

A good majority of the decks you list as top tier are horribly and utterly defeated by Unown G. With Unown G protecting you, your only reliable attack in Gengar is Poltergeist, which isn't reliable at all. At that point all you have going for you is a flippy power and good basic, which isn't enough to overpower much.

Your average Dusknoir is going to run 1 DP and 2 Shadow Command SF. This gives you a single attack that can be used to hurt a Pokemon with Unown G which only does 50 damage.

Machamp vs. a Basic Pokemon with Unown G won't even be damaged even if Machamp gets up on his first turn. Before you say 'what are the odds of that', they're better than your odds of getting of getting Machop and fighting energy and Rare Candy and Machamp. 2 > 4 in this case.

It won't be fast, it won't be enough. And each of these decks will have a tough time with Scizor/Cherrim, who for some bizarre reason is not high on the list. I guess everyone forgot how ridiculously good that card is, as well as the new Tangrowth.

Tyranitar is both over and under rated. It will lose most likely to Scizor/Cherrim, but beats up the overhyped Gengar and Dusknoir.

You've also gone and placed Luxray and GG, decks that won more BRs and have more history of being good this format than Empoleon, BELOW EMPOLEON. Empoleon is as good right now as my shoes are triangles.

Hurricane just received amazing support in SF. Hurricane was great without Bronzong SF, and it only stopped seeing play thanks to GG last year. Hurricane is definitely a high-up deck.

Garchomp should be on the line. It's a three energy card what can't take advantge of call energy and relies on a second stage 2 to get set up. As of my last check, Garchomp did not win a single BRs and doesnt really receive any support from this set.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

^I agree with what you say with unown G owning all the ghost-type pokemon. Well, the fact is, not all the cards in the set is that good. Cards like kingdra, AMU and froslass isn't really discussed anymore but let's not forget that they all can still be played better than most of the new cards out there.

The debate is topic is narrow-minded. It says that you want us to help you all find the top of the format but nearly everything in the list is of SF. Like every new set, everything there is always overhyped sadly till everyone forgets the giants of the previous sets.
 
RE: "Top of the Format" Entering Part 2. People please come and help find the Metagame.

What I really think...saying DP-SF has a typical 'metagame' is the wrong definition. It's more accurate to say it has 'decks', because almost every decent card in the format is viable right now. xD
 
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