Finished Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - TOWN WINS
- Thread starter Chillarmy
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RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
So tempted to vote out Puff:
aka Now that there is so evidence and more people are voting for Cinesra, I will too!
So he is repeating what others have said, and changes back once the support for his new vote goes away?
So tempted to vote out Puff:
Puff said:
Puff said:
aka Now that there is so evidence and more people are voting for Cinesra, I will too!
Puff said:
So he is repeating what others have said, and changes back once the support for his new vote goes away?
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
How come we are not looking at Teal also? Since Cinesra is the opposite of Teal, this mean Teal is either a townie or a wolf. Wouldn't it be better to lynch a possible wolf than a possible indie on the first day?
How come we are not looking at Teal also? Since Cinesra is the opposite of Teal, this mean Teal is either a townie or a wolf. Wouldn't it be better to lynch a possible wolf than a possible indie on the first day?
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
Derp, was i asking you? I was merely showing evidence which tied into my question.
Deus: Nightmare Autarch said:
Derp, was i asking you? I was merely showing evidence which tied into my question.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
If I'm not an indie, I'm a wolf (bad), an indie (usually bad) or a townie (good), yes. How about you?
That makes it slightly more probable that I'm good compared to for example you, or anyone chosen at random, as you can be a wolf (bad), an indie (usually bad) or a townie (good). ;P
Your logic is awful.Eevee said:
If I'm not an indie, I'm a wolf (bad)
That makes it slightly more probable that I'm good compared to for example you, or anyone chosen at random, as you can be a wolf (bad), an indie (usually bad) or a townie (good). ;P
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
"That makes it slightly more probable that I'm good compared to for example you, or anyone chosen at random, as you can be a wolf (bad), an indie (usually bad) or a townie (good). ;P"
Wouldn't that only be true if Cinesra was a wolf? I fail to see your logic.
"That makes it slightly more probable that I'm good compared to for example you, or anyone chosen at random, as you can be a wolf (bad), an indie (usually bad) or a townie (good). ;P"
Wouldn't that only be true if Cinesra was a wolf? I fail to see your logic.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
We can't pin anyone on anyone because we don't know ANYONE's alignment technically, but by using judgement we can do our best to find suspicious people and use possible hints to our advantage...
But, tbh, I would vote Cinesra over Teal any day because Possible Indie > Less possible wolf.
We can't pin anyone on anyone because we don't know ANYONE's alignment technically, but by using judgement we can do our best to find suspicious people and use possible hints to our advantage...
But, tbh, I would vote Cinesra over Teal any day because Possible Indie > Less possible wolf.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
Glace... I will say this one more time, clearly, and you had better understand now.
My post is pretty much based on the assumptions Zyflair mentioned:
#1) The note is not messing with us. (I assume this.)
#2) The note tells us that Cinesra is an indie and I am not.
If the note tells us that I am not an indie and we believe it, it means that the probability of me being a townie is about* 21/28 = 75% (indies excluded from the total count). The probability of a random person being a townie would be about* 21/32 = 65,6%
* I am using the same stats as last game - 7 wolves and 3 real, 1 after-death and 1 not-really indies - I'll make that 4 indies. (I counted that pretty fast so I don't take responsibility if I counted wrong. xP)
As I know that I'm a townie, it gives me in my eyes more credibility to the note as it is right about me not being an indie. And what's more important, it means that Cinesra is not a townie. (Still assuming #1) and #2) are true!)
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is an indie, we can probably trust the notes in the future too (assuming that we get them in the future and it was not a one-shot ability, of course). In that case I would assume that the Texas Ranger made the note.
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is a wolf, we can assume that I am not a wolf, because the note would come from a good guy again (I still say the Texas Ranger), and the note said I'm not gray like Cinesra. In that case I could be an indie, though. ;P
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is a townie, I'm in trouble. xP Then you just have to believe me that I am a townie... the seer could see me night 1 (but it's not really a good idea for the seer to out themselve this early). But if at least the seer would know day 2 that I am not lying about being a townie, it would probably put me, and through that, the town into a better position. I just don't want that you lynch me too, that would make two totally wasted days in a row...
Try to understand.
This might actually be my final post today (I already voted for Cinesra). I don't really have anything to add to this and I doubt that I will change my mind, unless we get evidence that tells us that we can't trust the note.
Glace... I will say this one more time, clearly, and you had better understand now.
My post is pretty much based on the assumptions Zyflair mentioned:
#1) The note is not messing with us. (I assume this.)
#2) The note tells us that Cinesra is an indie and I am not.
If the note tells us that I am not an indie and we believe it, it means that the probability of me being a townie is about* 21/28 = 75% (indies excluded from the total count). The probability of a random person being a townie would be about* 21/32 = 65,6%
* I am using the same stats as last game - 7 wolves and 3 real, 1 after-death and 1 not-really indies - I'll make that 4 indies. (I counted that pretty fast so I don't take responsibility if I counted wrong. xP)
As I know that I'm a townie, it gives me in my eyes more credibility to the note as it is right about me not being an indie. And what's more important, it means that Cinesra is not a townie. (Still assuming #1) and #2) are true!)
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is an indie, we can probably trust the notes in the future too (assuming that we get them in the future and it was not a one-shot ability, of course). In that case I would assume that the Texas Ranger made the note.
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is a wolf, we can assume that I am not a wolf, because the note would come from a good guy again (I still say the Texas Ranger), and the note said I'm not gray like Cinesra. In that case I could be an indie, though. ;P
If we now lynch Cinesra and he is a townie, I'm in trouble. xP Then you just have to believe me that I am a townie... the seer could see me night 1 (but it's not really a good idea for the seer to out themselve this early). But if at least the seer would know day 2 that I am not lying about being a townie, it would probably put me, and through that, the town into a better position. I just don't want that you lynch me too, that would make two totally wasted days in a row...
Try to understand.
This might actually be my final post today (I already voted for Cinesra). I don't really have anything to add to this and I doubt that I will change my mind, unless we get evidence that tells us that we can't trust the note.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
THIS:
Teal says:
THIS:
Teal says:
And he WANTS to lynch Cinesra. Why would he risk that if it would get him in trouble? For this reason, I really think Teal is the townie here. That's why I want to lynch Cinesra and find out what he is.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
I'll give everything a full response tomorrow, when I'm not on my iPod. For now, I'd just like to point out how much Puff is bandwagoning and how hard Teal is going after me to take the suspicion off himself. I get trying to defend yourself, but this is a little much. He's not even taking into consideration any other interpretation of the note besides the one he likes. SB, of course he wants to lynch me and of course he seems confident; that's kind of the point of reverse psychology. Remember what was going on with TDL earlier? You're falling for it pretty badly.
I'll give everything a full response tomorrow, when I'm not on my iPod. For now, I'd just like to point out how much Puff is bandwagoning and how hard Teal is going after me to take the suspicion off himself. I get trying to defend yourself, but this is a little much. He's not even taking into consideration any other interpretation of the note besides the one he likes. SB, of course he wants to lynch me and of course he seems confident; that's kind of the point of reverse psychology. Remember what was going on with TDL earlier? You're falling for it pretty badly.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
I did that because I'm totally befuddled as to what's going on. We'r just flip-flopping between 3 things with no clear majority. at the rate we're going at, we're just going to have no majority because everyone is sticking by their lynch. the way I see it, a random lynch has a very high probability of making us lose 2 townies in 1 day, which is never a good thing. SO I'm just voting with the majority
I did that because I'm totally befuddled as to what's going on. We'r just flip-flopping between 3 things with no clear majority. at the rate we're going at, we're just going to have no majority because everyone is sticking by their lynch. the way I see it, a random lynch has a very high probability of making us lose 2 townies in 1 day, which is never a good thing. SO I'm just voting with the majority
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
You should vote with MY majority.
You should vote with MY majority.
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
"We're" as in a you, 9Tailz, and Bippa, which are all in my opinion fairly safe votes. I would rather go with the most experienced player because it is less likely that they would switch around, but I have no clue which one that is... anyone know?
Puff said:
"We're" as in a you, 9Tailz, and Bippa, which are all in my opinion fairly safe votes. I would rather go with the most experienced player because it is less likely that they would switch around, but I have no clue which one that is... anyone know?
RE: Werewolf XIII - Gunfire at Dusty Gulch - Day 1 ends Saturday, July 7th, 11.59pm PDT
why dont we just vote cinesra AND teal just so that note thing won't bother us anymore. we're spending so much time with those notes
why dont we just vote cinesra AND teal just so that note thing won't bother us anymore. we're spending so much time with those notes
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