Even after PMJ explaining why he supposedly is "confirmed" town tracker, I don't get it. Could you explain it to me like a little baby and bold the crucial part? I just don't see how you are a confirmed town tracker. I'm probably missing something though.
Really, the only way to confirm me as town tracker is to 1) kill me or 2) kill the mafia tracker (if there is one).
However, I am saying that it is very very very unlikely that I am mafia tracker. Think about it logically.
There is only one copy of most of the roles in the game. To make a claim and claim one of the roles there is only one copy of is a very dangerous thing because if the real role counterclaims you, then you're both in trouble. This is why vanilla townie is such a popular claim; it's a hard claim to disprove. If you don't have a night action, then you can coast on that claim until you die.
Normally, townies don't have anything to fear by claiming. Scum, however, have every reason to lie about their role (as I said a while ago, no one will claim scum without a jester (whose win condition is to be lynched) in the game.
When you make a fakeclaim (that is, claiming a role that isn't yours), you run the risk of being counterclaimed - that is, the real role also claiming the role you just did.
If there's only one copy of the role, it's obvious that one of you is lying. So now the question becomes, what do we do about it?
Since I've been talking about it all game, we'll use tracker as an example.
The reason I feel confirmed town is because of
risk vs. reward. Is the risk of making a fakeclaim worth the reward of deceiving the town? After all, if I'm mafia tracker, and the town believes I'm town tracker, then I'm basically guaranteed to win it for my side as long as no one suspects I'm mafia.
What is the risk associated with claiming town tracker?
This depends on my alignment.
If I am scum, the risk is huge. Why? Because I am obviously not the town tracker. I would not know if there is a town tracker in the game. If I claim town tracker
and the real town tracker comes forward, we are both going to die.
Why? Think of it like this. Let's say that PMJ and WPM are both in a game. I am mafia tracker, but I roll dice and claim town tracker. WPM, the real town tracker, knows that I'm lying. He immediately counterclaims me, claiming that he is the real town tracker, says I must be mafia tracker, and votes for me. Since I don't want to be lynched, I vote for him as well. We spend the day making accusations back and forth. At the end of the day it looks like WPM is going to be lynched. I'm home free! ...or am I?
Far from it. In reality,
I am screwed no matter what happens. If the town believes WPM and I get lynched, I will flip mafia tracker and that's the end of that. WPM is now confirmed as town and will likely be the target of any protection roles as the town's sole clear power role. Even if the town believes me and WPM gets lynched, he will flips town tracker. Since it is obvious that I am now lying about my role, I must be mafia tracker and am guaranteed to be lynched the following day. At worst I will be lynched today; at best I will be lynched tomorrow.
It's lose-lose no matter what I do.
Why is this important? Numbers. The scum's win condition revolves around preserving their numbers. Let's say that the above scenario plays out; I get lynched and WPM gets nightkilled. Both town and scum are down a player. No big deal, right? Wrong. Not only does it set the scum team back a day every time they lose a member, but even if they take a townie down with them every time one of them dies, they will never win. Imagine a game of 20 players and four are scum. If you kill a townie along with a scum you will still have 12 townies left and no scum.
Scum cannot afford to lose players at will, even if a townie dies as a direct result of their actions. As I just illustrated, there is no risk here if you are town because with soooo many more of you than scum, it's actually
beneficial for the town to lose a player if it means they will lose a scum too.
That's why I consider myself confirmed town. If I were scum, all someone has to do is say "I claim town tracker" and I'm boned. (You lynch the counterclaim first in case it is a scum trying to fakeclaim; it doesn't matter if it's really town claiming a legit role because after the town player flips town, the scum will be lynched tomorrow.)
No one has counterclaimed me. Town won't do it because they will end up dead. Scum definitely won't do it, for the same reason.
I hope this makes everything clear.
