Finished Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - The Order of the Phoenix is the Winner!

[AlexanderTheAwesome]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I've been gone awhile and this reading is overwhelming
Can someone give me a brief rundown?

 

[grantm1999]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

What happened with doggers and mtc? I looked back but didn't find anything...

 

[One Approved]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I've been gone awhile and this reading is overwhelming
Can someone give me a brief rundown?

tl;dr

~There was a brief bandwagon on KeeperofNight because he posted saying he "met his quota" and wasn't going to post more unless necessary
~grantm1999 still thinks KoN and Lenny are the 2 best lynch options
~doger and Machamp randomly agreed that lynching Teal was a good idea, so people are thinking they *might* both be scum (but there was a LOT of posts inbetween doger's and Machamp's)
~I think grant is tunneling Lenny, which is kind of detrimental to the town (imo)
~Teal pointed out that doger and Machamp are agreeing, so he started the motion to try and lynch Machamp, who is the current leader in votes
~Daily prophet headlines go right after Machamp and Lenny, which leads Reinforce to believe that the headliner could possibly be scummy

...did I miss anything?

 

[PMJ]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

Not to derail the current train of thought but this crossed my mind earlier, and I'm only just now getting to post.

Does anyone else find it strange that two Malfoys were killed one right after the other? Like, what are the odds? This can't be a coincidence.

 

[AlexanderTheAwesome]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I honestly think that grant might be the ministry guy... Just a hunch. But he's tunneling Lenny pretty hard
Now if he tunneled both Lenny and KON in his message it would be too obvious that he is the guy, so instead he targeted Lenny and MTC so nobody would think twice about it. REVERSE REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY

 

[Reinforce]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

Not to derail the current train of thought but this crossed my mind earlier, and I'm only just now getting to post.

Does anyone else find it strange that two Malfoys were killed one right after the other? Like, what are the odds? This can't be a coincidence.

There are no coincidences.

The simplest explanation is that there's a wolf-aligned seer.

The second is that they could have got a hint from Cinesra's posts yesterday.

And a third scenario I'm thinking of here is: the Malfoy manor/family was stated to be in masonry. Draco and Narcissa are the ones who died. Assuming we only include the immediate family here, there are 3 Malfoys. The last one would logically be the father: Lucius Malfoy.

He's also a Death Eater.

Though he turned reluctant in the latter part of the series, there's still a huge possibility that Lucius Malfoy is aligned with the Death Eaters. Meaning, if he is indeed in this game, he is in two different QTs. Quite possibly, after GM Draclord (Narcissa) got outed in the first day, he thought Cinesra (Draco) to be a liability more than an ally, and would rather be sticking with the Death Eaters (the flips show that the Malfoys have two possible win conditions, I'd think his wouldn't be very different), so he got him nightkilled.

 

[bbninjas]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

-snip-

But Machamp the Champion. His push on Teal's lynch is scummy, and then the first thing he did oN day 2 was try and get it going again. Also, the newspaper suggested looking into MtC (and Lenny), which is something that would be more viable then lynching KoN.

So I'm suspicious because I'm trying to follow up on a lead I started day 1? What? Wouldn't it be more scummy to back off of my lead with no reasoning as to why?
-snip-

I guess I would not just jump in straight away like that, but I guess that may be suspicion-caused bias. I don't like it, probably because I would refrain from doing it, hence why I think it was/is scummy.

Not to derail the current train of thought but this crossed my mind earlier, and I'm only just now getting to post.

Does anyone else find it strange that two Malfoys were killed one right after the other? Like, what are the odds? This can't be a coincidence.

I know that others have said why, but I feel that it is because of this ability, which only 'clicked' after reading Cinesra's role, who I think was originally scum ("you were recruited by Lord Voldemort to join the Death Eaters"):

Passive Ability: Unbreakable Vow
You of the Malfoy Manor have made an unbreakable vow. If one of you dies, the other members will go to the faction the deceased was sided with (if a faction was to change, you’ll receive that faction’s Win Condition).

Since Drac died, I'm assuming both the scum and the town Malfoys became Independent. I think the scum realised this and then killed Cinesra. Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure it would be a bit OP as the exscum member could tell the Indies who the scum are. Also, I certainly wouldn't tell the scum my full role in case a town/indie died.

---

Reinforce made a point about MtC and Dogger that made me think: What is the likelihood that MtC and Dogger are town mason? I buddied with Drohn in WWXXIII, and we were both town so...

 

[xDoggerx]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

##UNVOTE: Keeper of Night
##VOTE: Machamp The Champion

Let's look at this post:

By reading all this, I'm sure that Machamp is kind of right. If he's an independient, he can cause a lot of trouble in the late game, yet if he's not.
I'm kind of concerned about that "I would definitely not lynch myself" phrase from Drac in page #"I don't remember", but anyway... I guess I'm going to be the decisive vote here so... ##vote GM Draclord

There were 60 posts between this post and MTC's lastest post. It was this:

In this case, it's not really important which one we're prioritizing, since we know for a fact that he's an Independent, and we don't know for sure who any of the wolves are.

The way xDoggerx randomly mentioned MTC for no apparent reason at all makes me feel like both of them are wolves. Of all people, Dogger decided to buddy MTC's thoughts. It looks like a newbie wolf to me who decided to go with what his teammate said. I mean: xDoggerx is, without a doubt, a newbie. I don't see any reason why (even a newbie) townie would have said that of all things. There seems to be a link.

This combined with the fact that MTC tunnels an experienced player for a lynch on day 1&2 with no good reason expect that "I seems suspicious and nobody else does" makes him and Dogger the best lead for now.

Ok, as I can see, you're saying that I could be a wolf while teamed up with MTC just because I "randomly" mentioned him to support my point of view, well, just to let you know, I can see why you could think of something like that, but the real thing is that I don't really have THAT much time to spend in here so I used 1 statement that I saw earlier in the game just to make stronger my point of view.

Still, the way you're accusing MTC and myself, could be a way to hide yourself if you would be a wolf, I mean, being a wolf, you exactly know who your companions are, if you see that someone makes a false move, you point right at that mistake to take down that "issue". (I'm not so newbie at this game )

I'm neither supporting nor denying the fact that I could be or not be a wolf but I see pretty suspicious the fact of you pointing at 2 people just because some random coincidence happened

On the other side, I saw a lot of posts from D2, and the way KoN is acting seems pretty suspicious to me, I guess you were on the right track with him because, for some reason he... Well, just want the time to pass

I'll be back when something interesting happens.

I understand that by filling you're quota is a good way to not be modkilled and still be on the game but still, that could also be a good strategy: You seem to be really out of the game, then you just fill your quota and keep with the same thing over and over.

I know that the quota is real, and I hope I can fill it for example xD but IDK, I'm the commonly not-really-active person in these games, not you.

 

[Keeper of Night]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

That is a terrible defense Dogger. Trying to immediately point at somebody going against you as a wolf, and then using the same points that MtC (an accused partner of yours) doesn't make you any less innocent. If anything, it makes me even more suspicious, as this seems like newbie wolf behavior.

However, I will point out that MtC may still not be a wolf. However, I would be very content with a Dogger lynch.

 

[bbninjas]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

That is a terrible defense Dogger. Trying to immediately point at somebody going against you as a wolf, and then using the same points that MtC (an accused partner of yours) doesn't make you any less innocent. If anything, it makes me even more suspicious, as this seems like newbie wolf behavior.

However, I will point out that MtC may still not be a wolf. However, I would be very content with a Dogger lynch.

Why would you be contempt with a Dogger lynch compared to a MtC lynch?

 

[Keeper of Night]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

Reinforce made a point about MtC and Dogger that made me think: What is the likelihood that MtC and Dogger are town mason? I buddied with Drohn in WWXXIII, and we were both town so...

Then they may as well claimed, because if they aren't wolves, it's all to clear to the real wolf team what they are.

@my above post:
However However? smh

 

[Keeper of Night]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

That is a terrible defense Dogger. Trying to immediately point at somebody going against you as a wolf, and then using the same points that MtC (an accused partner of yours) doesn't make you any less innocent. If anything, it makes me even more suspicious, as this seems like newbie wolf behavior.

However, I will point out that MtC may still not be a wolf. However, I would be very content with a Dogger lynch.

Why would you be contempt with a Dogger lynch compared to a MtC lynch?

Contempt =/= content
I'm fine with either, as they are obviously connected. However, if only one of them were to be wolf, I'd put money on Dogger, as a newbie wolf could just as easily latch to town as they could another wolf.

 

[xDoggerx]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

That is a terrible defense Dogger. Trying to immediately point at somebody going against you as a wolf, and then using the same points that MtC (an accused partner of yours) doesn't make you any less innocent. If anything, it makes me even more suspicious, as this seems like newbie wolf behavior.

However, I will point out that MtC may still not be a wolf. However, I would be very content with a Dogger lynch.

I'm not pointing at anyone, if you take it personal, it's not my problem, I was just saying what strategy could be the one that the wolves are/were probably using. Another thing to take into account is that a lot of people started going against me, why would I go just for you?

Anyway or another I guess that if my suppositions are kind of correct I'm going to be dead by N2, if I am, I hope my information goes somewhere useful.

By the way....

However, I will point out that MtC may still not be a wolf.

Why not him; but me? If your statements were right, how could I possibly be a wolf and MTC not? Everyone is assuming that because of my bad use of early points of view and including someone in them, well, I am related in some way with him.
What if I used you instead of MTC to fortify my declarations?

 

[xDoggerx]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I could be a newbie here at WW in the forums, but how can you assure that I haven't played somewhere else, this same kind of idea?

 

[Celever]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

##UNVOTE: KoN
##VOTE: xDoggerx

MtC hasn't been very suspicious thus far tbh. I think this is more Dogger's scum team saying "distance yourself from the team" and then Dogger decided to make some connection to someone not on his team (he assumed they were town) and when he was found out his argument was the literal embodiment of OMGUS and then some. That's my theory, anyway.

Dogger: how many games of Werewolf have you played?

 

[Keeper of Night]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I could be a newbie here at WW in the forums, but how can you assure that I haven't played somewhere else, this same kind of idea?

You could always tell us. That's the most effective way.
But since you haven't and had to bring that point up (not the first time somebody has tried to pull that), I'm going to guess you haven't.

 

[xDoggerx]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

To answer both of your posts, I "know":

Night 0's Action:

Minerva McGonagall targeted Albus Dumbledore with an Ability.

This proves they're both in the game. As for Snape, there's a post about it in a QT I am in.

Another thing I just saw, Vom, this night is probably going to be your last because the wolves can't let you keep informing about that. At least some useful information came out of that, If you used that same ability in N1, this is a good chance to tell everyone, and still do the same in D3 if you're still alive. Just saying.

 

[bbninjas]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

Hello what? I have no idea why a townie would say all of this.
##UNVOTE Machamp the Champion
##VOTE xDoggerx

 

[xDoggerx]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

MtC hasn't been very suspicious thus far tbh. I think this is more Dogger's scum team saying "distance yourself from the team" and then Dogger decided to make some connection to someone not on his team (he assumed they were town) and when he was found out his argument was the literal embodiment of OMGUS and then some. That's my theory, anyway.

Dogger: how many games of Werewolf have you played?

I could be a newbie here at WW in the forums, but how can you assure that I haven't played somewhere else, this same kind of idea?

You could always tell us. That's the most effective way.
But since you haven't and had to bring that point up (not the first time somebody has tried to pull that), I'm going to guess you haven't.

Yeah, you two are right, there are some things that I wanted to keep to myself for some reasons, but as I'm probably already dead... Well YOLO

Search for: (Not advertising) "Town of Salem" You will see how I played before.

And also, good theory Celever, still I've been living with a paranoiac brother enough time already, (I guess that's how you spell it), and with some help of psychology teachers, I reached a point where I understood that some people accuse others of doing things, just because they do it. For example, if I were a robber, I would constantly have the fear of anybody trying to steal something from me. This happens not just with paranoiac people, but with almost everyone in this world. It's a really useful mind game

 

[bbninjas]

RE: Werewolf XXIV: The Wizarding War - Day 2 ends December 24th, at 23:59 GMT

I think I may just add really weak defenses with that post I just made...