Finished Werewolf XXXI: Grima's Rebirth - GAME OVER! TOWN WINS!

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bbninjas said:
If I plonk everyone into list of town/neutral/scum reads then I'd have this:

Town (confo):
Camo
King X
Ice Espeon
Me!

Town (Scumhunting/Role-Helpful Town)
Reinforce
Celever
Professor P
TGK

Neutral (helpful):
scattered
morda
PMJ

Neutral/Scummy (seem to be unnoticeable):
Jabber
Vracken
Luis
quaking

Considering there was likely 6 scum to begin with and maybe an indie, I think it's likely that 5 or 6 of the players floating around is scum. I'd also say that about two from each of the Neutral categories and maybe one from the town category are town.
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That list is not far off from the checklist notes I'm keeping. Vracken and quaking are new players and the latter hasn't even posted anything noteworthy aside from voting/hammering me, that's why they're not high on my seer priority list. I'd call Celever and Prof Palutena neutral, if only because they have not hinted about their identity, but they're active and discussing a lot, so they're leaning more on the scale of town. I'd try seering one of them tonight if I survive perhaps. From the neutrals, the ones I could see having a chance of scum: 1) scattered mind - I'm surprised that he doesn't seem to have that many posts here, in your game and mine where he was town, he was very active in the discussion. It's a little meta, but he could be lurking. 2) Luispipe8 - All I'm sure about him now is that he's not the announcer :p and I don't feel a participation drive from his posts, more like he's coasting along the Day? 3) Jabberwock - in a similar boat to King Xerneas, actually; short posts/questions and just barely there or something.. Though he seems to be going more active today. Let's see if it sticks.

bbninjas said:
I also now really regret not trying to understand the portal/drive thing. I'm trying to figure it out right now. This is the evidence that we got:

Morda was redirected from Camoclone to GM Draclord.
GM Draclord redirected two of Celever, Empoleon_Master and Camoclone to each other.
Reinforce was redirected from GM Draclord to Camoclone.
Reinforce "went close to" GM Draclord.
No one has claimed using a Portal nor using another form of redirection.

Looking at that, I don't actually think who GM Drac redirected actually effects the situation between the other redirections at all. I find it interesting to note that the player that targeted Camo was redirected to GM Drac and vice versa. There are three situations that I can think of:

Scenario 1: Someone used a Portal on Reinforce and redirected him to Camoclone. Similarly, someone used a portal on Morda and redirected him to GM Draclord. This scenario seems unlikely as surely at least one player would claim using a Portal, although potentially this was coordinated by a scum team.

Scenario 2: Someone used a drive that swapped the targets of all players acting on Camoclone and GM Draclord. However, this scenario also seems unlikely, as technically GM Drac should have targeted himself, but it is still plausible, albiet less than Scenario 1.

Scenario 3: Someone used a drive that swapped the targets of Reinforce and Morda, meaning Reinforce targets Morda's original target and vice versa (i.e. the opposite of GM Drac's Ability). I think this is most likely and is likely a scum's Ability, as they haven't claimed the action in thread like a townie should.

I'm not too sure what information that gives in regards to scum hunting at the moment, but it would be nice to figure out in the future.
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Regardless, it's nice that you've compiled in a clear-to-understand list. Looking at it:
Scenario 1 implies either a coincidence or a planned attack. It's possible we might have a redirector not confessing here as well.
Scenario 2 has a very low probability, but can't discount that.
Scenario 3 actually makes sense, and I recall that Ability from a previous game (I think it was WWXXIX).

The most obvious information we get from this is that in this game, there is a lot of redirection going on. O_O
 
Reinforce said:
From the neutrals, the ones I could see having a chance of scum: 1) scattered mind - I'm surprised that he doesn't seem to have that many posts here, in your game and mine where he was town, he was very active in the discussion. It's a little meta, but he could be lurking.
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Really? I would've thought that when he posts he posts stuff of substance/scumhunting; and I sorta noticed it as much as your game. I know that in my game both Camo and I weren't playing, which is 2 of the biggest posters, and I think ORAS was his first game, so its more natural that he'd post more.

Re 2) Luispipe8 - All I'm sure about him now is that he's not the announcer :p and I don't feel a participation drive from his posts, more like he's coasting along the Day?
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Yeah I was getting that sort of vibe to. Most of the posts I can think of related to E_m and pointing out he made no sense, but would need to go back and check.
 
Whelp I was asleep!

I do believe @Reinforce more than yesterday because KX has given no hints about his role, unlike Camo (hinted that he had avoid +10: a myrmidon skill) and bbninjas (His ability basically of tells us that he is Libra or Tiki). However, I would like confirmation from KX himself before not believing that you are scum.
 
Reinforce said:
Oh, but isn't the "case" on me based on assumption as well? The tracker/watcher result from morda didn't state that I killed GM Draclord in its exact terms. Targeting (or attempting to target) does not automatically mean that I killed him, but you guys assumed that I did anyway. Am I wrong?
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Yes, you're wrong here. @mordacazir sees everyone that targeted GM Drac, and the only player targeting them was you. GM Drac died that night from a nightkill. Therefore, Occam's Razor dictates that you killed him.

Fine, maybe the scumteam doesn't have a kill once their "leader" dies (which would make them unbelievably underpowered) and the right to that kill instead goes to an indie who also happens to have a ninja role, which would be mostly useless given the fact that the tracker/watcher is one role on only one player. Maybe. But that's outlandish and at this stage we have no reason to believe any of that. This is why it's important to remember Occam's Razor in werewolf. Yes, look at all sides of an argument, but don't start thinking that the craziest things like this are true, because that case has far more assumptions and a lot of baseless speculation than simply "mord shows you kill him".
Reinforce said:
Alright, fine. This is going to be a little long, so I hope you have patience.
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This is true. It took you an hour to c/p your role and type up a couple of small paragraphs underneath it. Why?

@Reinforce I've basically claimed my identity earlier on in the thread, but nice to know I was vague enough to not make it obvious I guess. :p

I like your choice of target last night, though.

Basically, I think we should leave RF. Someone mentioned a theory about him maybe being Grima and needing the Grimleal dead; this would be pretty smart, but I think the night RF killed GM Drac was the Valmese's kill. The three Valmese roles are almost certainly Walhart (confirmed), Cervantes and Excellus. The latter makes a lot of sense as RF's role -- both being lynchproof and being a role name seer. Excellus plays dirty and has connections, so it makes sense to me that Excellus could blackmail his way out of a lynch, and then he could also find stuff out about people with his connections and blackmail.

However, while RF is scum, we should leave him. If he's lynchproof (until Cervantes also dies; permanently lynchproof is a broken role no matter what faction) then the Grimleal are going to nightkill him themselves because they have no choice but to. If he's town, the Grimleal aren't gonna want him seering one of their players. The nightkills in this game have been very random and frankly sub-optimal, but if they don't shoot a lynchproof player with strong investigative abilities they're honestly not even taking this game seriously.

Basically, there's nothing we can achieve by voting for this scum again, which honestly makes me feel quite powerless and I'm not a fan of this role for that reason. Optimally, Cervantes will die today, so we can lynch RF tomorrow.

##VOTE: scattered mind for being scum.
 
Actually, I was also thinking that Reinforce could be Excellus, but there is also a possibility of him being Grima.SM has been under-the-radar in scum hunts, and hasn't posted a lot as well, so...

##GetMoving: scattered mind
 
I'm pretty sure the amount of my posts is the same as other games.
I started WW in Revelation btw.
I am at work on my phone and the day has barely started. Find a case or move on.
 
If Reinforce is town, why isn't he dead? There's dumb kills and then there's leaving a confirmed lynchproof seer alive kind of dumb kills.

I'm glad to see that King Xerneas is town. His posts read fairly towny to me so it's good to see that my results are in line with his alignment.

Why are we lynching scattered mind?
 
I second PMJ, I don't really see something condemning sm. Although, he seemed neutral to me at most, so can't be totally sure.

@bbninjas @Reinforce Trust me, I'd like to make myself notice, and I even do so every other game. However, in those games I spent almost literally the whole day in my computer, so it was fairly easy to catch up and post thoughts. ATM I'm still uncertain when my PC will be back, but until then I can only check the thread from the phone and need like 20 minutes every time I get in to catch up with the rest of the posts, so I can't be any more "noticeable" even if I wanted to. :/
 
What posts look scummy to you? I just looked over his real quick and I don't see anything that looks out of the ordinary.

I'll be back later. I just worked a surprise 8-hour shift after being up all day thinking I didn't have to ._.
 
Honestly, @PMJ is making an excellent as to why SM isn't scum. Originally, the infrequency of his posts was what made me believe him to be scum, but as PMJ stated, the content of his posts comes off as more townie than scum. Even though this is a backpedal, I have no idea what to do yet but...

##UnGetMoving: scattered mind
 
If we're only looking at post frequency then IE, Vracken and even myself would be prime suspects. Inactivity /can/ contribute as a scummy behaviour if you're just lurking, sheeping and bandwagoning; but it's never strong enough to lynch someone for by itself.

By now, I'm extremely surprised all of PMJ, Celever, bbninjas and Camoclone are alive. They're by far the scum's favorite targets and rarely go past D2 if town. I'm inclined to believe at least one of them is scum, though I'd have to dig into them a bit more.
 
Luispipe8 said:
If we're only looking at post frequency then IE, Vracken and even myself would be prime suspects. Inactivity /can/ contribute as a scummy behaviour if you're just lurking, sheeping and bandwagoning; but it's never strong enough to lynch someone for by itself.

By now, I'm extremely surprised all of PMJ, Celever, bbninjas and Camoclone are alive. They're by far the scum's favorite targets and rarely go past D2 if town. I'm inclined to believe at least one of them is scum, though I'd have to dig into them a bit more.
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Yeah, the scum in this game is weird. Aside from Healer, who was killed by Scum1, none of he night kills have been contributing to town in a positive manner.
 
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