Finished Mafia LXI: Forest Fire: Game Over!

[Scattered mind]

Jade claimed firefighter. That means my options are Jabber and ephemera.
@Vom who is the most scummy of the two in your eyes?

 

[Ephemera]

@Ephemera - Why should we believe that you are town after trying to steer the vote to Amici after people decided to vote mega? How was Amici a better option than Mega from your point of view?

To be frank: I was unsure. I thought there was scum between bb/mega, but I also thought amici was likely the scumbuddy for either of them. I also was too tired to give an accurate vote on mega, and I preferred a more informed vote on amici rather than a bandwagon vote on mega, especially since I still wasn't 100% sold on bb town at that point.

 

[Ephemera]

Tomorrow (since i'm tired as heck and still somehow have stuff to do) I'll go over the thread again for interactions with flipped scum and town, as well as Jade, who is firefighter.

Besides Jade, no one is a lock. There are very likely townies, but no one besides Jade is a lock.

...unless there's a counterclaim :U

 

[NinjaPenguin]

Day 4: Vote Count 1​

scattered mind (1)-Jabberwock
Jabberwock (1)-Ephemera
Not Voting: bbninjas, Jadethepokemontrainer, scattered mind, Vom

If the day ended right now, the elimination would be randomly chosen between scattered mind and Jabberwock. There are 72 hours remaining in the day.

Vote History:

Spoiler

Spoiler: Day 1

#20-Celever voted bbninjas
#23-Amici voted Celever
#27-Ephemera voted Celever
#30-Vom voted Fiery_Lugia
#32-Ephemera voted Vom
#41-Ephemera voted Ephemera
#42-Ephemera voted Vom
#47-Vom voted Ephemera
#51-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#55-Celever voted Ephemera
#81-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#102-bbninjas voted Ephemera
#120-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#123-Ephemera voted MegaPod_781
#139-MegaPod_781 voted Ephemera
#151-Scattered mind voted Amici
#162-Ephemera voted Celever
#244-MegaPod_781 voted Celever
#249-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Celever
#268-scattered mind voted Fiery_Lugia
#276-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#288-scattered mind voted Celever
#297-Celever voted bbninjas
#302-Fiery_Lugia voted Celever
#304-Celever voted Amici

Spoiler: Day 2

#308-MegaPod_781 voted bbninjas
#320-scattered mind voted bbninjas
#348-bbninjas voted MegaPod_781
#353-Amici voted Ephemera
#357-Vom voted scattered mind
#358-Ephemera voted bbninjas
#390-Jadethepokemontrainer voted MegaPod_781
#392-Ephemera voted Amici
#395-Vom voted MegaPod_781

Spoiler: Day 3

#404-Vom voted scattered mind
#405-Ephemera voted Amici
#418-Jadethepokemontrainer voted Amici
#420-bbninjas voted Amici

#453-Jabberwock voted scattered mind
#454-Ephemera voted Jabberwock

The following players have not posted in the past 24 hours and are being tagged (this isn't a warning or anything, just a reminder):
@Celever
@Vom

 

[Jabberwock]

I've played 8 games by now, including this one.

Typically my town play is more like that of my champs game (Game 2) – I'm not usually the top poster, and I usually make analysis walls.

...then I realized that no one reads my analysis walls, not even me. So I decided to try something different – since we're typically known for not so high activity games here, I tried to post a metric ton of chaotic posts to drive activity.

Can anyone confirm whether this checks out?

I'm a little offended that you said my reads aren't based on scumhunting??? I believe I've put a ton of my reasons and rationale into the thread, especially yesterday.

Okay I mean. Your posts yesterday were a combination of responding to questions I asked you, and proposing either that the firefighter claim or that everybody post their full reads. Credit where credit is due, post #440 is a good post. You didn't need to post all of that at that point in the day; your reasoning and confidence level on Amici was the most important thing; but there was some actual read development there and you get credit for that. For most of this game, though, your posts (and reads) have not stacked up to that one in terms of content. (You acknowledge this in post #427.)

I've been reading scattered town

This is something you need to develop; as far as I'm aware it's still just based on a single D1 vote of scattered's. You've been saying you'd go back and read his posts again since the middle of yesterday, and now it actually matters. Please do that ASAP.

A question to everyone: is it possible that the mega wagon D2 wasn't pure?

At this point you need a pretty good reason to cast suspicion on any of those three. Do you actually have one, or is this just a hypothetical?

Vom and bb are top town reads for me.

Ephe is pretty townie as well. Especially after his last post above.

Scattered has read town for me, but I'm going to double reevaluate on him. It's kind of weird for him to point out how he was the first to put suspicion on Amici if he was scum and she flipped town. Idk. I also want to just go back and look through their interactions because iirc they had some back and forth.

Jabber is hard to say. He has still just subbed in, he is fairly active. Gonna read through them again later.

Elaborate.

If not me, who would you vote?

Ephemera.

About your case on me- My reads were all over the place: Show me how because that is too general and also explain what is scummy in that.

Scum don't have legitimate reads because they already know everybody's alignment, so they're commonly very non-committal because they don't want to appear over-invested in an elimination they know will flip town. Flip-floppiness is scummy because it shows you're trying to cover all your bases and simultaneously not put too many eggs in any one basket.

About me stating that I voted Amici first and never talked about it again- that doesn't mean I dropped the case on Amici. I put her on my scumread and when Cel suggested to eliminate her - I once again responded that I am all for it- Why do you think it is scummy?

It does mean you dropped the case on Amici, though? When a townie scumreads a player, they don't just keep it to themself for eight pages; they actively question that player, build a case on them, etc. Instead, you dropped the line of questioning into Amici on page 14, switching your vote to FL and then to Cel by EoD, and didn't return to her until questioned yesterday. If you actually scumread her the whole time, that wasn't playing toward the town's wincon.

 

[bbninjas]

Just to pop in and say - I’ve been skimming and will have time to post on the next few hours or so.

 

[Scattered mind]

Scum don't have legitimate reads because they already know everybody's alignment, so they're commonly very non-committal because they don't want to appear over-invested in an elimination they know will flip town. Flip-floppiness is scummy because it shows you're trying to cover all your bases and simultaneously not put too many eggs in any one basket.

that doesnt make sense. If that was true I would have not be so committed to eliminate bbninjas. By that logic I was supposed to leave another option.

 

[Scattered mind]

It does mean you dropped the case on Amici, though? When a townie scumreads a player, they don't just keep it to themself for eight pages; they actively question that player, build a case on them, etc. Instead, you dropped the line of questioning into Amici on page 14, switching your vote to FL and then to Cel by EoD, and didn't return to her until questioned yesterday. If you actually scumread her the whole time, that wasn't playing toward the town's wincon.

Because I didn't have a full case on her. What was I supposed to do besides pointing out that point about Amici that I made? Sure I could have repeated that but that doesn't mean I am scummy for not repeating the same point. I had nothing new on her and once other people got something new - naturally I gathered my point on her to show others that there is another point to add to her case.

 

[Vom]

eliminating the amici slot was pretty much necessary

Why?

Oop, howdy howdy, I am here <3

Can we have a list of your targets up until now?

@Vom - I read you as town funnily enough because of the case you made on me. It feels very likely to come from town plus your vote on Mega. I get that you think that me agreeing with mega was alarming to you that we were scumbuddies - but I think your main issue with me is the lack of transperency -The fact that I don't reveal my full rainbow list to people is not scummy - It comes from the idea that my reads are being read by scum and can be used like that. Which is ironically something I learned from Camoclone of all people. Revealing your full readlist early on can help scum more than town. Also if you need meta proofs- I did a full early readlist as scum. So not only that is not alignment indicative it is also not meta indicative on me.

You are half correct, yes. I do take issue with your lack of transparency, but not about your rainbow - I don't really care about rainbow lists early on, I agree that they're not very helpful at that point, so I didn't make one myself either. My problem is that I don't think you've elaborated on any of your reads/votes, not even when prompted by other players, be it me or someone else. I will take the thought process behind a single read/vote over a rainbow early game all day, but you didn't react to any of it until now that Amici is gone and you've come under fire as the main target.

Jade claimed firefighter. That means my options are Jabber and ephemera.
@Vom who is the most scummy of the two in your eyes?

Not sure yet, I thought Ephe in the beginning, but I read them town now, and it's not that Jabber is a scumread, but less town than Ephe I guess. His posts feel like bb 2.0, but obviously he can't be coached by scum!bb because one of scum!bb or scum!Jabber would be the last scum anyway.

For most of this game, though, your posts (and reads) have not stacked up to that one in terms of content. (You acknowledge this in post #427.)

Judging from your posts (since I don't think we've played together before, at least not recently) I'm sure you know quality=/=quantity. Why bring this up as a point?

 

[Jabberwock]

that doesnt make sense. If that was true I would have not be so committed to eliminate bbninjas. By that logic I was supposed to leave another option.

That's a good point about your having committed to the bb elim; I just went and skimmed from post #320, and I had genuinely forgotten there was more to that wagon than Mega. Yeah that's my bad, it was overgeneralizing of me to say that your reads all game had been entirely non-committal.

Because I didn't have a full case on her. What was I supposed to do besides pointing out that point about Amici that I made? Sure I could have repeated that but that doesn't mean I am scummy for not repeating the same point. I had nothing new on her and once other people got something new - naturally I gathered my point on her to show others that there is another point to add to her case.

It's not just that you didn't have a case; it's that you dropped questioning Amici completely around page 14. If she actually remained a scumread for you after that page, I have a hard time believing you wouldn't question her further to try and develop your read. Did she respond to your point adequately? Then she shouldn't be a scumread. Did she not? Then you shouldn't have dropped it.

Remaining silent on a scumread is an anti-town mindset. Moreover, keeping points on a player in the back of your mind and only bringing them up after somebody else starts a wagon on them is an inherently scummy mindset.

Not sure yet, I thought Ephe in the beginning, but I read them town now

Why did you originally read them as scum, and what changed?

Judging from your posts (since I don't think we've played together before, at least not recently) I'm sure you know quality=/=quantity. Why bring this up as a point?

I meant content in terms of quality (of reads, explanation, scumhunting), not quantity (of words); is that what you meant, or am I misunderstanding?

 

[Vom]

As for reads (no particular order, just writing them as they come to my head):

• Ephe: Though I initially saw them as scummy (as most of you around in D1 will fondly remember) around D2 I changed my mind based on their posts, and though at this point in time I still stand by that, I'm probably gonna reevaluate that read specially because PoE and I was sure I was onto something D1 - though obviously I could be wrong, can't hurt to make sure.
  
• Jabber: Like I mentioned in my previous post, he is pretty neutral. He just subbed in so it's fair that he doesn't have anything especially telling for either side, though my initial impression is that he's got big posts ressembling bb's and that puts me off. Again, that cannot be a tell because there is only one scum left, but I thought I'd point that out anyways. They look like they have substance on the surface, but definitely warrants a closer look.
• bbninjas: As literally everyone else has pointed out, bb gets loads of towncred from the Mega elimination, and is likely town. However, everyone has him as lock town, which inherently makes me wary of him because no one should naturally have that much towncred and you know how it goes, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. Still, I think he's town, and I think we can trust him to some extent, but definitely not like we can trust the confo-town people. We can't forget the only people we know are town are Jade, Amici and Celever. Let's also not forget who led the Amici wagon and even proposed a hammer.
  
• Jade: Well, he claimed doc, no one's counter-claimed, I think everyone's been around since then so that means he's town.
  
• scattered: Less scummy since at least he seems to acknowledge the points made on him, but still hasn't actually addressed those points so still on the bottom of my rainbow.

 

[Vom]

Why did you originally read them as scum, and what changed?

Originally it was interactions with lily and Amici, but they dug themselves into a deeper hole for a while after more pressured was added. However towards the end of D1 and since then, their posts changed tone a bit and they stopped just defending themselves like we asked, though in retrospect I guess that could've been coaching from Mega since I think he's more experienced.

I meant content in terms of quality (of reads, explanation, scumhunting), not quantity (of words); is that what you meant, or am I misunderstanding?

Yeah that's what I meant, guess the one who misunderstood was me.

 

[bbninjas]

Jade claimed firefighter. That means my options are Jabber and ephemera.
@Vom who is the most scummy of the two in your eyes?

@scattered mind Sorry if I missed this, but who is the most scummy of the two in your eyes?

To be frank: I was unsure. I thought there was scum between bb/mega, but I also thought amici was likely the scumbuddy for either of them. I also was too tired to give an accurate vote on mega, and I preferred a more informed vote on amici rather than a bandwagon vote on mega, especially since I still wasn't 100% sold on bb town at that point.

This post seems a bit suss to me, but can't quite put my finger on it. Eph - why were you so convinced that there was scum between bb and mega? Why didn't you want to confirm that your theory was correct first? It feels like you were pushing for an Amici elimination based on nothing more than a hunch.

Can we have a list of your targets up until now?

@Jadethepokemontrainer do not claim your actions. I don't see how it's helpful for solving and it tells scum who has been successfully primed and who has not.

@Vom What was the point of asking this question?

Not sure yet, I thought Ephe in the beginning, but I read them town now, and it's not that Jabber is a scumread, but less town than Ephe I guess. His posts feel like bb 2.0, but obviously he can't be coached by scum!bb because one of scum!bb or scum!Jabber would be the last scum anyway.

I think Jabber and I just have very similar playstyles and ways of figuring out scum, which makes sense since we started playing mafia at the same time. I've found myself agreeing with basically everything Jabber's said, and I think he's done the most to dig up information this day so far (very townie; scum do not need to put in this much effort to survive one elim).

• Jabber: Like I mentioned in my previous post, he is pretty neutral. He just subbed in so it's fair that he doesn't have anything especially telling for either side, though my initial impression is that he's got big posts ressembling bb's and that puts me off. Again, that cannot be a tell because there is only one scum left, but I thought I'd point that out anyways. They look like they have substance on the surface, but definitely warrants a closer look

If this can't be a tell, then why have you brought it up twice in a row? You seem to be throwing a lot of suspicion at Jabber right now without any particular reason; the "appears to have substance, but take a closer look" point is just tin-foil hat paranoia.

• bbninjas: As literally everyone else has pointed out, bb gets loads of towncred from the Mega elimination, and is likely town. However, everyone has him as lock town, which inherently makes me wary of him because no one should naturally have that much towncred and you know how it goes, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. Still, I think he's town, and I think we can trust him to some extent, but definitely not like we can trust the confo-town people. We can't forget the only people we know are town are Jade, Amici and Celever. Let's also not forget who led the Amici wagon and even proposed a hammer.

This is also a bit odd - I can understand you throwing suspicion at me if your reason is "bbn could have easily bussed Mega", which is a very fair point, but you haven't even mentioned that here. "He's got too much towncred" and wifom-y "if it's too good to be true" are not very good reasons to throw suspicion on someone.

 

[bbninjas]

Quick comments:

• Scattered's defense has been very strong and well-reasoned imo. I think some points on scattered have been NAI, but the points that scattered was non-commital (which scattered refuted) and dropping the Amici case (which scattered hasn't refuted convincingly imo) are good points.
• Scattered, Jabber and Vom are predominantly focused on solving. (very good)
• Ephemera is predominantly focused on defending themself from suspicion. (hmmmm)
• I plan to check whether anyone was "sowing seeds" on Day 3 to set up a Day 4 wagon when Amici inevitably flipped scum. I feel this can be very telling.
• There's some interesting vote analysis that I'll do later; I think Mega was voting to eliminate in Day 1 and it could soft-clear the people who he voted.

 

[bbninjas]

My bad:

... scattered was non-commital (which scattered refuted convincingly) ...
...when Amici inevitably flipped town.

 

[Ephemera]

Quick comments:

• Scattered's defense has been very strong and well-reasoned imo. I think some points on scattered have been NAI, but the points that scattered was non-commital (which scattered refuted) and dropping the Amici case (which scattered hasn't refuted convincingly imo) are good points.
• Scattered, Jabber and Vom are predominantly focused on solving. (very good)
• Ephemera is predominantly focused on defending themself from suspicion. (hmmmm)
• I plan to check whether anyone was "sowing seeds" on Day 3 to set up a Day 4 wagon when Amici inevitably flipped scum. I feel this can be very telling.
• There's some interesting vote analysis that I'll do later; I think Mega was voting to eliminate in Day 1 and it could soft-clear the people who he voted.

oh my god not this again

I'm gonna work on my reread, I just really don't have too much time – I will get it out.

Addressing questions to me:

1. Re: my question about the mega wagon being pure: it's a hypothetical. I believe they're all town, but I might be forgetting something, so I wanted a sanity check.
2. Re: the amici eviction being necessary: If we hadn't evicted amici yesterday, today we go in with scum driving the amici eviction hard, and a) amici would not have really been there to defend herself, and b) it would have made sense. I don't believe we could have gone into a potential MYLO with amici's slot alive.
3. Re: bb/mega having at least one scum: the interaction didn't read like v/v. It read like at least one of you had an agenda, but I wasn't sure which.

I'll send a link of my champs game if you want, but it can be found in the champs rep thread as well.

 

[Jabberwock]

Ephe: Though I initially saw them as scummy (as most of you around in D1 will fondly remember) around D2 I changed my mind based on their posts, and though at this point in time I still stand by that, I'm probably gonna reevaluate that read specially because PoE and I was sure I was onto something D1 - though obviously I could be wrong, can't hurt to make sure.[/QUOTE
Were there any posts in particular around D2 that made you change your mind? When I was reading the thread for the first time after subbing in, I remember being surprised that there was so much discussion around Ephemera that dropped off so quickly after the end of D1. The initial points on them (insubstantial reads, flip-floppiness, OMGUSing) all remain very relevant.

bbninjas: As literally everyone else has pointed out, bb gets loads of towncred from the Mega elimination, and is likely town. However, everyone has him as lock town, which inherently makes me wary of him because no one should naturally have that much towncred and you know how it goes, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. Still, I think he's town, and I think we can trust him to some extent, but definitely not like we can trust the confo-town people. We can't forget the only people we know are town are Jade, Amici and Celever. Let's also not forget who led the Amici wagon and even proposed a hammer.

Most of us thought the Amici wagon was sound at the time; bb's role in it is very much NAI. The hammer thing was a little weird, sure, but he gave his reasoning (being 80% confident that the game would end that day) and it made sense. I'd even argue that that 80% certainty is a significant point in his favor — I think I brought this up earlier, but scum doesn't invest that heavily in an elimination they know will flip town. If your only point is "don't call bb locktown," that's fair, but there's no reason to scumread him right now, and several reasons to townread him.

Originally it was interactions with lily and Amici, but they dug themselves into a deeper hole for a while after more pressured was added. However towards the end of D1 and since then, their posts changed tone a bit and they stopped just defending themselves like we asked, though in retrospect I guess that could've been coaching from Mega since I think he's more experienced.

A change in tone is no reason to discount early scumtells.

Ephemera is predominantly focused on defending themself from suspicion. (hmmmm)

I actually haven't been getting this vibe; what are the specific posts in question? I agree that a significant portion of their posts this game have been that, but at least today, their posts have had legitimate questions and such as well.

There's some interesting vote analysis that I'll do later; I think Mega was voting to eliminate in Day 1 and it could soft-clear the people who he voted.

RVS vote analysis feels incredibly sketchy. Mega's an experienced player. What makes you think he was voting to eliminate then?

 

[Jabberwock]

Bleh. One sec, lemme try that again.

 

[Jabberwock]

Ephe: Though I initially saw them as scummy (as most of you around in D1 will fondly remember) around D2 I changed my mind based on their posts, and though at this point in time I still stand by that, I'm probably gonna reevaluate that read specially because PoE and I was sure I was onto something D1 - though obviously I could be wrong, can't hurt to make sure.

Were there any posts in particular around D2 that made you change your mind? When I was reading the thread for the first time after subbing in, I remember being surprised that there was so much discussion around Ephemera that dropped off so quickly after the end of D1. The initial points on them (insubstantial reads, flip-floppiness, OMGUSing) all remain very relevant.

bbninjas: As literally everyone else has pointed out, bb gets loads of towncred from the Mega elimination, and is likely town. However, everyone has him as lock town, which inherently makes me wary of him because no one should naturally have that much towncred and you know how it goes, if it's too good to be true, it probably is. Still, I think he's town, and I think we can trust him to some extent, but definitely not like we can trust the confo-town people. We can't forget the only people we know are town are Jade, Amici and Celever. Let's also not forget who led the Amici wagon and even proposed a hammer.

Most of us thought the Amici wagon was sound at the time; bb's role in it is very much NAI. The hammer thing was a little weird, sure, but he gave his reasoning (being 80% confident that the game would end that day) and it made sense. I'd even argue that that 80% certainty is a significant point in his favor — I think I brought this up earlier, but scum doesn't invest that heavily in an elimination they know will flip town. If your only point is "don't call bb locktown," that's fair, but there's no reason to scumread him right now, and several reasons to townread him.

Originally it was interactions with lily and Amici, but they dug themselves into a deeper hole for a while after more pressured was added. However towards the end of D1 and since then, their posts changed tone a bit and they stopped just defending themselves like we asked, though in retrospect I guess that could've been coaching from Mega since I think he's more experienced.

A change in tone is no reason to discount early scumtells.

Ephemera is predominantly focused on defending themself from suspicion. (hmmmm)

I actually haven't been getting this vibe; what are the specific posts in question? I agree that a significant portion of their posts this game have been that, but at least today, their posts have had legitimate questions and such as well.

There's some interesting vote analysis that I'll do later; I think Mega was voting to eliminate in Day 1 and it could soft-clear the people who he voted.

RVS vote analysis feels incredibly sketchy. Mega's an experienced player. What makes you think he was voting to eliminate then?

 

[Jabberwock]

Re: my question about the mega wagon being pure: it's a hypothetical. I believe they're all town, but I might be forgetting something, so I wanted a sanity check.

It's a weird thing to bring up if you believe they're all town. A sanity check is something you ask for if you're starting to believe it yourself.

Re: bb/mega having at least one scum: the interaction didn't read like v/v. It read like at least one of you had an agenda, but I wasn't sure which.

Elaborate?