Finished Mafia XLII: War of the Gods ~ GAME OVER ~ Town wins!

[bbninjas]

The only way it's even possible for scattered to be scum is if I am too, which you spent a whole post trying to prove I'm not. Has logic taken its leave or something?

I did not spend any time in that post saying that scattered is scum. Why don't you read it? It's called a placeholder vote.

 

[Celever]

Placeholder votes accomplish nothing on active players. If you don't know who scum are, why would you not pressure?

 

[bbninjas]

Votes without reason don't do anything on any player Day 2 unless they're completely new, and I'm not thinking well enough to scrape together some reason that would actually create some good and reliable information on someone.

 

[bbninjas]

Why don't you start pressuring someone else properly instead of whatever you're trying to do right now, considering you've just left your vote on me and not commented on the element of my post that was directed at you, and effectively achieving nothing yourself?

 

[NinjaPenguin]

Then why vote for me?

Because I have to vote for someone, and nobody has stood out to me as scum besides you. Your role is most likely true, and if it is, you are a townie. But the chance of you lying about your role, and therefore being scum, is about equal to the chance of any other player being scum.

 

[bbninjas]

Because I have to vote for someone, and nobody has stood out to me as scum besides you. Your role is most likely true, and if it is, you are a townie. But the chance of you lying about your role, and therefore being scum, is about equal to the chance of any other player being scum.

This does not make sense... the change of Celever lying about his role is unlikely according to this "most likely true" in the previous sentence; therefore, you think it is unlikely that any other player is scum.

 

[Nyora]

NinjaPenguin was blocked? Does that also block the nightkill? If so, he might've just been blocked from doing the NK. I know it's p unlikely, but it's a possibility.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

This does not make sense... the change of Celever lying about his role is unlikely according to this "most likely true" in the previous sentence; therefore, you think it is unlikely that any other player is scum.

11 players remain in this game. Knowing common scum-town ratios, 8 town/indies and 3 scum are left alive. I'm a townie. That means any given player has a 30% chance of being scum. Since I don't have any large scum reads due to the low post quantity of most players and my lack of time to ISO them, I don't see any players as likely to be scum.

 

[Nyora]

Also I have an idol, used 4 hearts, aaaaand I can't unvote :/

 

[NinjaPenguin]

@rainyman123 Did you also get the Merenguy? If so, it doesn't mean exactly what you may think it does. Here's my conversation with the hosts, so you can see what it actually means:

What exactly can I do voting-wise?

Basically, it just stops you from unvoting. You can still change your vote, but you will also start off voting for a random player in the following day if your vote contributed to the previous days lynch until you lose this Idol.

How can I change my vote without unvoting?

... That is a good point.
You just can't leave yourself voting no one. If you just Unvote, but don't place a vote in the same message, your vote will be placed back on the person you tried unvoting.
Sorry, that wording is my bad haha

Now I get it. Thanks!

 

[Nyora]

Yes and it's still confuzzling :/

 

[bbninjas]

11 players remain in this game. Knowing common scum-town ratios, 8 town/indies and 3 scum are left alive. I'm a townie. That means any given player has a 30% chance of being scum. Since I don't have any large scum reads due to the low post quantity of most players and my lack of time to ISO them, I don't see any players as likely to be scum.

Weird, but okay.

Also I have an idol, used 4 hearts, aaaaand I can't unvote :/

Does the idol have the clause "You can however, change your vote target."? If it does, then you can still change your vote, you just can't ever leave your vote on noone. (Also ninja'd be NP.)

 

[Nyora]

So like, mandatory voting

 

[mordacazir]

BPV

What is BPV?

And I don't think the scum are NP, Celever or scattered. The scum are most likely hiding among the least vocal letting the vocal players screw themselves.

That is what I said yesterday. (In game days)

Because I have to vote for someone, and nobody has stood out to me as scum besides you. Your role is most likely true, and if it is, you are a townie. But the chance of you lying about your role, and therefore being scum, is about equal to the chance of any other player being scum.

No, his chance of being scum is less likely, because you said the role is likely true so that would mean he is more likely town right?

NinjaPenguin was blocked?

Now I really don't iunderstand anymore. Wut?

 

[Celever]

This is getting ridiculous. This entire situation. You have no idea how much I want to swear right now -- everything here beggars belief. Everything by NP and bb, anyway. mord and rainy's posts are fine.

What is BPV?

Bullet-Proof Vest (survives one nightkill target without needing a doctor or roleblocker, a passive ability).

bb Right Now:

And I don't think the scum are NP, Celever or scattered. The scum are most likely hiding among the least vocal letting the vocal players screw themselves.

So WHY would you vote for a vocal player? Legit -- you, while not thinking scattered is scum, have voted for scattered. And when given the opportunity to backpedal this, you refused. I'm so completely confused by this action. OK, you put down a placeholder vote (which is a dumb concept anyway). Why on earth would you not target one of the people who think is scum only by virtue of being one of the least vocal players?

Votes without reason don't do anything on any player Day 2 unless they're completely new, and I'm not thinking well enough to scrape together some reason that would actually create some good and reliable information on someone.

You're telling me that pressure is completely nullified starting on Day 2? That RVS can never last for longer than a day phase (tell me, what did we learn from the Lorde lynch you pushed oh so hard?) and that, even if putting a pressure vote on a random player on Day 2 might accomplish nothing, putting it on one of the most active players in the entire game who is confirmed as town because they were saved from the nightkill by a doctor might, on any scope of reality, accomplish MORE?

So pretty much you think I'm scum because I might be scumbuddies with NP (who may or may not be scum), because the scum made the most obvious Night 1 kill choice* and because you didn't die**?

This is such a ridiculous strawman, haha. Even though my case on you was rubbish to start with and I was clearly making stuff up to try and get a reaction out of you, you strawmanned it anyway. Guess it worked (what's that about pressure not working? D: )

Apart from this being the most weirdest and subjective WIFOM we've seen all game, you literally were the one who would consistently get up me for even daring to speculate about nightkills in any past game, so I am quite honestly baffled by whatever you're trying to achieve right now. Like, you're not even pursuing NP... you're pursuing me,partially because you think NP and I are scumbuddies based on what NP has done. Like, what?

Speculation about nightkills is flimsy, and not worthwhile when we have better leads. Thanks to the ridiculously stealthed, rubbish Day 1 lynch against a player who wasn't remotely scummy by any stretch of ANYONE'S imagination, it's what we're stuck with. Nightkills are the most WIFOMy entity in the world, but there is one lead from this nightkill which is very worthwhile -- your reaction to it:

because the scum made the most obvious Night 1 kill choice

First, scattered is fairly consistently killed early during the Night, and is generally killed earlier when I'm not scum

Not that this kill was a particularly thought-out one in the first place...

Like, I'm sorry? At worst this is blatant attempted character assassination of me without use of logic (wow saving the kill was so obvious and easy) and at best it's literally just outing yourself as scum because you're putting yourself in the logic of it completely. "This was a really obvious kill choice" doesn't cut it at all.

Read This: And you know what's most interesting about this for me? Why haven't you included yourself here? You and scattered were in exactly the same position at the end of Day 1. You were 2 of the 4 most active players (probably top 3, in fact) who, up to that point, had very little suspicion cast in your directions, if any at all. You were both on the Lorde wagon, though bb had a larger part in it. I simply don't understand what this massive distinction is between you and scattered which makes scattered the obvious kill choice. Except, of course, that you're scum yourself. After all, scum don't get targeted for nightkills -- they dish them out.

This was a pretty good quality scumslip, have to say. Certainly not an obvious one.

 

[NinjaPenguin]

What is BPV?

That is what I said yesterday. (In game days)

No, his chance of being scum is less likely, because you said the role is likely true so that would mean he is more likely town right?

Now I really don't iunderstand anymore. Wut?

Cel is more likely to flip town than scum. Then again, so is every player in the game if you ask me.
I was blocked. The kill was blocked. Rainy is speculating that may be why the kill was blocked. This explanation is wrong, of course, if Cel doctored the kill. The only chance that I tried to kill tonight, and was blocked, is Cel being scumbuddies with me and covering up for me.

 

[Celever]

Cel is more likely to flip town than scum. Then again, so is every player in the game if you ask me.
I was blocked. The kill was blocked. Rainy is speculating that may be why the kill was blocked. This explanation is wrong, of course, if Cel doctored the kill. The only chance that I tried to kill tonight, and was blocked, is Cel being scumbuddies with me and covering up for me.

What are you gonna get out of voting for me rather than another player? because if you try and lynch me it won't go through.

 

[Nyora]

Oh I didn't read Om the doctoring thing. Well, I'll believe it, but it's still suspicious.

 

[Celever]

@rainyman123 thoughts on the slip? @mirdo comment on the thread before there's too much to have to catch up on.

 

[Scattered mind]

I decided to get a item for 1 heart (hoping it would be bad), so I could swap it with someone I thought was scum. In the end, I was thrown in prison (A.K.A. Roleblocked), so I'm stuck with am item that forces me to always have my vote on someone. Since I voted someone at the end of yesterday and they were lynched, it's currently on someone random.
##UNVOTE
##VOTE: Celever
I still believe he is the scummiest player, as he risked the life of someone, and backpedaled and contradicted about why he did.
It would be good for the nightkill target to reveal themself. Just be sure to not say whether you were doctored or are bulletproof, as that's not information the scum need to know.
P.S. The update says Day 2, not Day 1.

You were rolebolocked? I don't understand.. because you tried to use your "Check the Stores" ability, after getting the bad item from the hosts?

I won't make a proper case until I wait a day or so, to see if there are counterclaims and see Cel's PMs. After that, I'll decide if I can trust him blocking the kill (and therefore being a townie). If I don't trust him, I'll build a proper case.

So.. does that mean you trust him now?

CCs won't really affect me saying this theory, so I'll go ahead.
If you are scum and successfully protected scattered, you must be a scum doctor. This normally seems wacky and useless, especially considering the setup probably wouldn't have a vig, but you need to remember TSM's role in Superheroes (scum Doctor). It wouldn't surprise me if DoS wanted to recycle one of his past roles, and made you the scum Doctor.
What happened is that either somebody redirected you to scattered (this is why I asked you for the first PM; the second was to be sure you wouldn't suspect my plan to potentially catch you) or you targeted him for towncred (in a massclaim, saying that you tried to doctor a townie could earn you some towncred)/protecting your buddy, but the kill accidentally was redirected to him, ruining your plan.

Too much speculation there. Celever is soft cleared and the simplest explanation tends to be the right one, especially in this site. I tried this paranoid theories before, and it never eded well.

There's no reason to specifically believe my explaination is true. If Celever is scum (as my read on his play says) and still protected scattered, this is the only option.
Also, you can't claim that the hosts would write in your PM that you were redirected, because you would obviously lie if you were scum.

That being said, I don't think that it's the most likely option. I just wish to point out the possibilities, in case someone did redirect you to scattered or someone else to scattered.

Fine, there is that rare possibility, let's move on.

Because I have to vote for someone, and nobody has stood out to me as scum besides you. Your role is most likely true, and if it is, you are a townie. But the chance of you lying about your role, and therefore being scum, is about equal to the chance of any other player being scum.

You said earlier that you didn't think that it was the most likely option, and now you say that Celever chances being scum or town is equal. That's a contradiction. If Celever is scum, that means he's scum doctor- aka - the option that you don't think is most likely. Therefore- the other only option is that he's town. That is not equal.

11 players remain in this game. Knowing common scum-town ratios, 8 town/indies and 3 scum are left alive. I'm a townie. That means any given player has a 30% chance of being scum. Since I don't have any large scum reads due to the low post quantity of most players and my lack of time to ISO them, I don't see any players as likely to be scum.

That's just a dry statistic that you use when you don't have any information on anyone. You do have the info on Celever, Lord who is dead, bbninjas and me who gave a lot of posts to make your mind about. What's the point of this post, really?

Cel is more likely to flip town than scum. Then again, so is every player in the game if you ask me.
I was blocked. The kill was blocked. Rainy is speculating that may be why the kill was blocked. This explanation is wrong, of course, if Cel doctored the kill. The only chance that I tried to kill tonight, and was blocked, is Cel being scumbuddies with me and covering up for me.

Why? I'm not following that logic. Can you explain it to me?