RE: The official Super Smash Bros Brawl thread.
I have strong doubts that Lucas will replace Ness. Ness is well-known in the U.S.A. and outside of Japan.
I am very excited that Lucas was announced on SSBB. Let me explain... there were three games in the Mother series released in Japan. By the time the first game released in Japan was translated, the SNES was released here. At that time, Mother 2 was released in Japan. Since Mother would probably not sell well due to the release of the SNES, Mother 2 was released in its place outside of Japan. Mother 2 became known as Earthbound. It had a lot of advertising promoting the game, but got dismissed because of the fact that it didn't have the same graphics and gameplay as other RPGs released on the SNES, and didn't sell as well as the creators wished.
Nevertheless, I consider Earthbound to be one of the greatest games on the SNES. It has lots of humor, quirkiness, and allusions to real life that make the story and gameplay make up for the differences from other RPGs. Its popularity has increased over the years, and still remains to be quite popular today.
Ever since Earthbound has been released outside of Japan, with the exception of Ness in Super Smash Bros and Super Smash Bros Melee, there has been no other mention of the Earthbound / Mother series outside of Japan. Mother 3 was released in Japan, which would be the sequel to Earthbound / Mother 2. This game was never released outside of Japan, and we have never seen any clues that the game might be made outside of Japan.
Until now.
Lucas is the main character of Mother 3. His presence in Super Smash Brothers Brawl could mean several things:
1) The creator of the Mother series recognizes that there is a fairly strong fanbased that wants Mother 3 to be released, and wants to at least give them a treat.
2) Same as above, except it is a test to see if its popularity would make a re-release of the game in other languages (This is the ideal situation, IMO).
3) The creator wants to include a character that is popular in Japan so that people in Japan don't feel left out.
Hopefully, 1) or 2) are the scenarios involved, but I am hoping that it is scenario 2).
Sources:
Starmen.net,
Wikipedia
In the end, the release of Lucas is a victory for me, at least. I am fairly confident that Ness will be in SSBB. Remember that with the current pace we have been going at, there has been a new character introduced once per week. This means that there are at least 9 or more characters that are likely to be announced as more info about SSBB is released.