RE: Werewolf XIV: The Legend of Canton Falls. Day 1 ends Thursday, September 6, 2012, at 8 PM CST.
Well, if we do no lynch, we have a 0% chance of hitting a wolf and we have a 100% chance of losing a townie the next night. However, if we do lynch, we have an approx. 25% chance to hit a wolf, and a 75% chance to hit a townie, possibly even an important role like the priest. On top of that, we still lose a townie to the wolves, regardless of how we lynch. So we either lynch a random person and risk losing 2 townies, or we vote No Lynch and only lose one.
Vote: No Lynch
Once we start getting a feel for how people are playing and who could potentially be suspicious (lurkers, bandwagoners etc.), then we should avoid No Lynch. However, with absolutely no leads, No Lynch is our most solid option.