RE: Werewolf XIV: The Legend of Canton Falls. Day 1 ends Thursday, September 6, 2012, at 8 PM CST.
Vote: No Lynch
I might undo it later, but I want to cast a vote before I forget.
@Chillarmy: I think I remember PMJ mentioning this in passing, and he said that he would not have any role, indie or otherwise, whose win condition would be to get himself lynched. So I really don't think we need to worry about him winning if we lynch him.
@Zyflair: Is there any particular reason you're voting for alexmf2, may I ask?
@thread: Allow me to state my opinion on the state of the game so far.
We currently have a total of 43 players. Each player is going to be town, wolf, or indie. (I'm going to assume this game has indies, since WW games tend to have a small number of indies.) In addition, the townies usually outnumber the wolves with a ratio of 3 to 1.
We can run some quick estimates on how many people are from each faction. I did some estimating myself, and one possible outcome is 30 townies, 10 wolves, and 3 indies, amounting to 43 total.
I know those are nice round numbers and, knowing PMJ - who doesn't like going with nice round numbers, having 7 wolves in his last game instead of 8 - but these numbers will probably be pretty close to the actual numbers.
Now, with that said, we can run a calculation. Let's assume that indies are a threat to the town. (This may not be true, but there aren't usually beneficial indies in games - Cinesra as Doctor Who in WW10 was one of the very rare exceptions.) That means that there are 13 players who are threats to the town.
43 into 13 is just a smidgen over 30%. This means that, if we lynch someone completely at random, there is roughly a 30% chance that we'll lynch a threat. Although this number isn't exactly high...it's not exactly low, either.
So, should we, as a town, try and find someone and take that 30% chance, or should we just play it safe and go No Lynch, and see where things go from there? We sadly only have until Thursday, so we shouldn't be sitting on this.
...okay I notice during the course of me writing this up that there are about 5 more posts calling for corn bread's head. Are we just going to now policy lynch him because of his strange tactic? like we would have done anyway if safariblade had signed up but that is besides the point