RE: Werewolf XIX: Day 13 ends 4/12/14
Players: 10/25
3.)MtheW
5.)Keeper of Night
9.)GM DracLord
10.)TwistedTurtwig
11.)rev3rsor
12.)Reinforce
15.)Teal
16.)Celever
17.)Astra
24.)Keckleon-X
HOSTS READ THIS:
We have 2 weeks come deadline, where KoN is lynched. This brings us to 9. 14 days to, at maximum, remove 7 people (someone's gotta be there at the end, this is anti-town only though) or just for the town to remove all threats. This means that players
must be active or they lose out. Day phases could be 3 days, and night phases 2. Let's see how that works out:
Night 14 -- 12 days to go (presumably) 7 people
Day 15 -- 11 days to go (presumably) 6 people
Night 16 -- 8 days to go (presumably) 5 people
Day 17 -- 6 days to go (presumably) 4 people
Night 18 -- 3 days to go (presumably) 3 people
Day 19 -- 1 day to go (presumably) 2 people. In other words, hooray this is like perfect timing.
Maybe you don't want to change your deadlines. Tough. Do you want this game to see a finish, or do you want to keep long deadlines and have it stopped just as us town can begin to see the finishing line as the numbers dwindle and there are few suspects left? Maybe you do, who knows. My point is, is that for this game to be any kind of success you must change your days to 3 irl days, and your nights to 2. Failure to do so will result in your game being modkilled. Nobody will be the winner. Unless, of course, we manage to lynch the few anti-towns left.
Now one thing is well and truly bugging me. Two things, actually. I feel as if this game is almost over for the village. I mean, 2 people per scumteam have died and no third parties. This is assuming third parties are in this game, because let's be honest in 2v1 third parties are a staple. An absolute must-have. However, let's look at something else...
No alphas have been revealed. Now honestly, I'm thinking it is more likely that there aren't any alphas in this game (I've never really understood the concept tbh -- this is the only site I've heard of where they exist) and because this is an OC game I kinda assume corn bread isn't mainly a pokebeacher either, so maybe he also wasn't familiar with the concept. However, 2 mafia per team in a 25-man game would be highly unreasonable to the mafia. If there is also a third-party (hint: there PROBABLY is) then that's essentially 20 vs 2 vs 2 vs 1. This means that the third-party is almost worth the weight of a faction by himself. This means that it is probably 20 vs 3 vs 3 vs 1. This then means that there are 3 anti-town characters left (one mafia, 1 illuminati and 1 indie). This means that after tonight and it's (probably) 2 kills, maybe 3 kills, town immediately lose... well in multi-faction, they still could win, but they no longer have lynch majority (they do tomorrow but not the next day) where they should be down to 3 or 2. Why is this bad? I shouldn't have to explain... it means we are almost guaranteed a loss at this point.
But let's say that corn bread innovated even MORE. Let's say that for the first time in my experience a 2 v 1 game has no indies. That would be 20 vs 3 vs 3... essentially 16 vs 6. This does seem more evenly matched... but it also means that at this stage it is 10 vs 2. This means after we lynch Keeper who is honestly probably town, it goes to 9 vs 2 (we talked a little bit lol). After the NK it is likely going to be 7 vs 2, but possibly 8 vs 1 should the scumteams pick up their act and start killing. Then we have approximately... 3 days to lynch the werewolf. This doesn't seem too difficult. Of course, if there is only 1 person left (the third party) this game will be unbalanced but it is a possibility... anyway we should have 4 days to lynch the guy. Either way, this game actually looks kinda successful for the village following the few assumptions. The only problem? IMO it is almost definitely 7 vs 1 vs 1 vs 1 right now... which I really do not like.
However, following the second-to-last assumption brings me to the next thing that irks me. Reinforce should have been modkilled, shouldn't he? I can't remember a single one of his posts... and he certainly hasn't posted today. For me Reinforce could be this inactive mafia we've wanted for ages. If he has been posting he has done a very successful job of flying under the radar, but the fact that he is alive also makes me think that he might be indie and corn bread didn't want to end his game through a modkill! If corn bread
still doesn't kill him he will definitely be my lynch target tomorrow!
If anything in this post seems scummy, just remember that this is the first attempt of actual information for this town for days. Except keeper's lynch on MTC, that was pretty great...
Anyway. I am unsure about this keeper lynch, but right now we don't really have any other leads and at this point in the game a randlynch is better than a nl. If someone changes their vote to Reinforce (I will be active enough to see, this is me here
) I will as well place a lynch on him, and with his votal being 2 he will die... so. Let the games begin. I would say we're in the final stretch but unless corn bread changes his deadlines, we're still in the midpoint and we ain't never gonna see no end to this madness.
(3 negatives makes it negative again I think... yay....)